THE political scene is heating up fast. With a flurry of important meetings happening in Islamabad and Lahore, and PTI allies breaking bread with opposition leaders, there is a fresh churn in static waters. The PDM and PPP leaders are certain that they can bring about a vote of no-confidence against Prime Minister Imran Khan while the government is shrugging off this threat rather contemptuously. The major change in strategy of the opposition has come about after a significant shift in the stance of PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif. Till recently, his firm stance was that the only way out of the present quagmire was to hold fresh elections. The PPP, on the other hand, had been arguing that the most prudent way to bring about change was through a no-confidence vote against the prime minister. Maryam Nawaz Sharif has now officially said that Nawaz Sharif has changed his stance and has given the go-ahead to do whatever it takes to get the numbers game going. This has led PML-N president Shehbaz Sharif, PPP leader Asif Zardari and JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman to launch an aggressive political outreach towards all political stakeholders. The most significant meeting so far has been the one between Shehbaz Sharif and the leadership of the PML-Q.

The numbers game is, however, far from clear. On Monday, PML-Q leader and Federal Minister Chaudhry Moonis Elahi sent the opposition running back to the drawing board by telling Prime Minister Imran Khan at an event that his party stood firmly with the PTI and they should not get worried. Government spokespersons used this statement as evidence to argue that their allies were not aligning with the opposition. That may be the situation for now but the very fact that both the MQM and PML-Q have met Shehbaz Sharif holds significance.

The opposition is short of about eight members in order to muster the required strength of 172 to bring down the prime minister, but they argue that many among the PTI ranks are also supporting them. While many factors will determine if the figure of 172 comes within their reach, both the opposition and the government know full well that the deciding factor will be the role of the establishment. The opposition says it just wants the establishment to remain neutral. The decision to actually move ahead with filing the vote of no-confidence will therefore depend primarily on the opposition’s assessment of this neutrality. They are still smarting from the various losses they have suffered in the Senate despite having the numbers on their side. In this respect, the role of the Jahangir Tareen group becomes crucial. The group consists of more than two dozen ruling party MNAs and MPAs and their crossing over to the opposition benches could deal a fatal blow to the government. The coming days are crucial.

Published in Dawn, February 15th, 2022