Growth was seen in cotton production in Sindh last season thus ginners and cotton producers have a reason to be euphoric. But some points can still be considered if sustainable growth in the cotton crop is anything to go by in Sindh.

Sindh’s growers have been getting impressive cotton yields in the last decade and a half as Bt cotton _ the commonly and extensively grown variety _ gave them better returns. Bt has the potential to increase per-acre yields as climatic conditions here are suitable for it, especially in the lower Sindh region. But over the last several years it has lost vigour due to impurities and is now susceptible to pests.

The variety had started to show a declining trend in production because of adulterations in seeds and growers’ inclination for sugar cane cultivation. And amidst this trend increased production, from 1.8 million bales in 2020 to 3.5m bales in 2021 was, indeed, an encouraging sign for ginners and growers alike. It was attributed to moderate rainfall that was beneficial for the crop. However, in 2020, heavy spells of rains washed away the crop in lower Sindh resulting in a huge drop in production.

“We need sustainable cotton production as our crop struggles to gain lost ground,” said Sindh Abadgar Board (SAB) vice president Mahmood Nawaz Shah, alluding to 4.2m bales achievement by Sindh in 2009-10. Since then cotton production didn’t achieve that mark despite its potential. He finds the increase in productivity positive but cautioned that this should be backed with certain governmental measures to make such growth consistent for the country’s economy and farmers as well.

Despite the challenge of adulterated seeds, if irrigation water flows remain consistently satisfactory, an increase in cotton acreage in the 2022-23 season is a foregone conclusion

Sindh achieved 593,889ha acreage in 2021 against 474,818ha last year. Likewise, the production of Sindh stood at 2.998m bales in 2021 against 1.862m bales in 2020. Increased acreage, mainly, was seen in cotton-growing districts of Sukkur, Naushahro Feroz, Benazirabad, Sanghar, Mirpurkhas, Dadu, Matiari, Tando Allahyar, Badin, Thatta and Tando Mohammad Khan. Barring Dadu, all were left bank districts known for cotton production.

Production wise, an increase of 87.97 per cent was seen in crop production last year when compared with 2020 cotton bales. The Sindh government was likely to keep the target of cotton sowing for the 2022 crop unchanged at 640,000 hectares.

Although acreage in the Khairpur district only slightly declined, production wise it made an impressive recovery from 217,744 bales in 2020 to 311,146 bales in the 2021 season. Likewise, in Ghotki where acreage (94,173 acres in 2020) had declined in 2021 (89,609 acres in 2021), 408,930 bales were produced in 2021 when compared with 304,891 bales in 2020. Sukkur’s reported improvement in production — 157,237 bales in 2020 and 174,270 bales in the last season.

Production jumped from 209,900 bales in Benazirabad in 2020 to 286,928 in 2021. Sanghar — home to cotton cultivation — witnessed substantial growth in production with 487,679 bales in 2020 and 593,974 bales in 2021. Matiari reported 121,262 bales in 2020 and 234,226 bales in 2021; Tando Allahyar had 15,790 bales in 2020 but seen 137,366 bales in last season and so did Tando Mohammad Khan with 2743 bales in 2020 and 14,533 bales in 2021 as well as Badin - 8429 bales in 2020 and 52,927 bales in 2021.

According to Mahmood Nawaz, as per official figures shared in meetings, Pakistan has lately witnessed an increase in paddy acreage by 1.2m acres and mostly Punjab’s cotton area had come under paddy sowing. “Sindh has a marginal increase in paddy’s acreage out of 1.2m acres,” he remarked.

Punjab government’s official Crop Reporting Service’s figures for cotton showed that in 2021 cotton acreage dropped to 3,161,000 acres from 3,821,000 acres (loss of -17.27 in acreage) that translated into the production of 5,168,000 bales (2021) which was 2.46pc up from 2020. When compared with 2019 the production dropped from 6,306,000 bales to 5,044,000 in 2020.

Pakistan Kissan Ittehad Chairman Khalid Mehmood believed the decline in provincial production could be linked to wrong advice by the agriculture department, calling for the spray of tobacco-mixed water to control the pest. He disputes the Punjab agriculture department’s figures on cotton production but is optimistic that the 2022-23 season would witness gains in acreage as early sowing was reported and farmers got better prices ranging from Rs5,500 to Rs8,000 in the last season. And this lessens maize and sugarcane acreage which benefits maize and sugar cane producer’s price wise due to a possible drop in production.

The supply of adulterated and unapproved seeds in Sindh has been a major problem. If approved seed’s supplies are ensured, Sindh’s cotton production would make a significant increase in production. Most adulterated seeds from Punjab reach Sindh with no checks by the agriculture department despite the fact that agriculture has been devolved to the provinces after the 18th amendment.

The Sindh government is working on a seed act and it has been referred to a committee for study. Sindh agriculture department argues that since seed certification is the domain of the federal government it won’t enter the fray which growers like Syed Nadeem Shah strongly dispute. “Sindh agriculture department could still check the supply of impure and adulterated seeds in the market,” he asserts.

Being office bearer of Association of All Sindh Seeds and a progressive cotton grower, Nadeem Shah contended that in 2020 Federal Seed Certification and Registration Department had allowed seeds with even a 50pc germination ratio since seeds were not available in the private sector, affecting productivity. In 2021, he said, seed with a 70pc germination ratio was allowed for sale. He added rainfall in Sindh with regular intervals and moderate-intensity favoured yields.

The Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) is also present in the market as an important player through open tenders in Sindh for buying cotton crop at Rs5,000 if the price falls below it. This encourages growers to extend their crop as late as January 2022 and spend on vital inputs to get more picking. “And this is the reason that cotton arrivals were reported until Feb 15, 2022,” said a ginner from Hyderabad, Lal Chand Leemani.

Those who had early picking and had better returns like Rs6,000 per 40kg on an average didn’t terminate crop either, claimed Mr Shah. Rather they used Nitrophos and Diammonium phosphate urea to have more picking, says Sindh Chamber of Agriculture vice president Nabi Bux Sathio. “We should not lose sight of adulterated seed’s supply and must put an end to it to have reliable yields,” he said.

Early sowing of cotton was reported in lower Sindh by farmers to capitalise on early picking before the monsoon season starts. Availability of water has remained satisfactory till February to some extent. If irrigation water flows remain consistently satisfactory, an increase in cotton acreage in the 2022-23 season is a foregone conclusion.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, January 21st, 2022