LAHORE: Cotton crop may see its area increasing for the first time in the last decade this year in Punjab as its sowing starts and competing crops, especially maize, lose their economic sheen, claim farmers who abandoned the crop a few years back.

According to farmers, some factors that started damaging cotton in the last decade or so, have started favouring it yet again. Seed chaos, which had started the decline, is recovering as some new Pink Bollworm (destroyer-in-chief in case of cotton) resistant seeds have arrived in the market and claimed increasing area to give positive results.

Imran Shah, a former cotton grower from Khanewal area, explains that maize has become too capital intensive now. With a requirement of two bags of Di-Ammonia Phosphate (DAP), each costing over Rs10,000, one Potash (another Rs7,000) and four to six bags of urea (over Rs15,000) per acre and all of it after Rs14,000 seed investment, how much investment would it take to sow, say, 100 acres.

The investment returns after harvest, but it has to be invested in the first place. The attack of armyworm, requiring around four sprays, broke the back of maize in many areas.

Grower confidence returns as rival crops become an expensive ride

“It does not mean that maize area would drop to half, but only to claim that odds have started favouring cotton yet again. It requires half of that investment and yield, if the current rate (both international and local), brings healthy returns. This year’s return on cotton has redirected farmers back to cotton, he claims.

Since investment in maize increased manifold in the last three years, it has become a crucial factor determining its fate, Abad Khan of Farmers Associates Pakistan says. With the cotton rate touching Rs8,000 per 40kg, it can now compete with all alternatives — maize and rice.

Another factor favouring cotton is that it does not entail much initial investment apart from Rs4,000 per acre on seeds. By the time fertiliser is required, the crop starts yielding small amounts and continues in its life cycle. With new seeds, by and large, neutralising the Pink Bollworm threat, farmers are getting their cotton confidence back. It does not mean that its area would multiply this season, but it would certainly increase, as compared to last year when it touched down 3.1 million acres — ringing alarm bells in national industrial and policy circles.

Naeem Hotiana, a former cotton grower, is still a reluctant believer in cotton fortunes. He thinks though farmers are falling for cotton again, how far it translates into acreage is yet to be seen. Maize is still a sure shot when compared to cotton.

“Over 90 per cent of potato farmers are contract growers, who would not risk a crop unless they are 100pc sure about the outcome — that is where maize still fits in.

Return of cotton is in the air, in all areas of central Punjab and the farmers are counting the benefits as well — some of them very valid ones. But how much of this optimism translates into acres on the ground is more of guesswork.

“I have had experienced both crops and still think that maize would not give up so easily,” he concludes.

Published in Dawn, February 27th, 2022