THE PPP’s ‘long march’ on the capital that kicked off from Karachi yesterday appears to be more of a mass mobilisation drive in preparation of the fast-approaching 2023 elections than a strategy to oust Prime Minister Imran Khan. We know well that such protest campaigns don’t bring down a party in power. The PPP isn’t the only one whose engines are trying to groan back into life to make the party relevant to voters ahead of the polls. Others, including the ruling PTI itself, are also slowly moving into election mode.

The PDM, the multiparty opposition alliance of which the PPP was a major part until a year ago, has announced its support for the march ever since the opposition parties decided to join forces in order to overthrow the PTI set-up through a vote of no-confidence against the prime minister. The PDM too is planning to march on the capital on Pakistan Day unless the opposition introduces its planned no-confidence motion in the National Assembly earlier. In a tit-for-tat response to the PPP’s long march plans, the PTI and its allies from the province also took out a rally against the Sindh government on Saturday from Ghotki to Karachi. Such activities are expected to gain momentum whether or not the opposition’s move against Mr Khan succeeds.

That said, it must be pointed that the combined opposition, which has not been able to pose a serious challenge to the government in the last three-and-a-half years inside or outside parliament, now appears to have found a clear objective.

But it remains undecided if it wants fresh polls in case the no-confidence move succeeds or an interim period between now and the next general elections. The PML-N so far has not seen any merit in the present assemblies continuing. The PPP, on the other hand, is of the view that the assemblies should complete their five-year tenure, especially because the opposition needs the support of the PML-Q, a government ally at the centre and in Punjab. The PML-Q is believed to have demanded the continuation of the assemblies and the office of Punjab chief minister in return for lending support to the opposition. The PML-N feels that both the PPP and PML-Q could collude to use this interim period to create support for themselves in the province, which remains the PML-N’s stronghold.

Read more: PML-Q watches no-trust move machinations sitting on the fence

If the opposition parties fail to win over the PML-Q, they will have to depend on a rebellion from within the PTI, with dissenters agreeing to resign from the Assembly or vote with them — again at the cost of their seats. Hence, the success of the vote of no-confidence largely depends on which side the PML-Q and other PTI allies throw their weight. If the opposition’s move is to succeed it has to come to an agreement on the post-PTI arrangement sooner rather than later.

Published in Dawn, February 28th, 2022