DEMOCRATIC norms seem to be a major casualty in the ongoing political power game in Islamabad. The situation has become extremely ugly as the countdown to the no-confidence vote has begun. In the no-holds-barred scramble for numbers, every weapon — from coercion to bribery — is being employed.

Bidding is up, and wheeling and dealing is the name of this high-stakes game. Old adversaries have turned friends and allies have become foes. We may have seen all this earlier, but matters are getting to be more unsavoury than before. There is not even a pretence at principles in this blatant struggle for power. The virulent rhetoric from both sides has further soured the political atmosphere.

It could not get uglier with the prime minister publicly threatening his rivals of dire consequences. The government plans to hold a massive public rally outside parliament on the eve of the voting on the no-confidence motion. Some cabinet ministers have also called upon party supporters not to let the dissenting MNAs enter the House. The opposition alliance has also called its supporters to march on Islamabad. It could lead to an extremely dangerous situation.

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With some two weeks left for the vote on the no-confidence motion, the outcome is still unpredictable, notwithstanding the growing confidence of the opposition camp. Surely a lot will depend on who the PML-Q and MQM support. Although still a part of the coalition government, they are now hedging their bets. Interestingly, the Chaudhries of Gujrat have become critical players in the unfolding power game. The MQM too has raised the stakes. But the main question is whether the opposition alliance will accept their demand. The price the PML-Q has set for its support is the post of Punjab chief minister. It remains to be seen whether the PML-N is willing to concede the coveted position to its political rival in its bastion of power.

With his crutch gone, the prime minister is feeling the heat.

Similarly, it would be difficult, if not impossible, for the PPP to accept the MQM’s demand for empowering the Karachi city government and to increase the job quota for Sindh’s urban areas. It would require fresh legislation by the Sindh Assembly to change the existing regulations. The two parties are likely to jointly announce their decision this week, after which the outcome would more or less become clear.

But it is the PTI’s internal revolt, led by the prime minister’s erstwhile closest aides, that presents the biggest problem for the embattled PM. The two most powerful factions, led by Jahangir Khan Tareen and Aleem Khan, are already in negotiations with the opposition alliance. They still have not made their decision public, although it is apparent that they are leaning towards the opposition. Then there are also some freewheeling PTI MNAs who reportedly have already cut a deal with the opposition.

There is no good news for the prime minister, but the game is not over for him yet. The unfolding situation has forced him to come down from his high pedestal. Images of him visiting the leaders of the coalition parties show that the government is feeling the heat. Such a gesture by the prime minister was unthinkable some months ago. There is also a move to placate the party dissenters, but it seems too late for that now.

It is evident that the prime minister is now left to fight his own battle, with the security establishment stepping aside. The decision of the military leadership to stay out of the political fray has completely changed the dynamics. Unlike in the past, when support from the security agencies helped the PTI government overcome many political challenges, that pivot is now missing.

While the establishment’s neutrality has encouraged the opposition to step up pressure on the fledgling administration, it has increased the prime minister’s predicament. There may not be a complete rupture in relations between the civil and military leadership but it could well mark the end of the existing hybrid arrangement. The change is also manifested in the unravelling of the ruling coalition and the unfolding fragmentation of the PTI in Punjab. The overdependence of the prime minister on the security establishment to manage matters has weakened his political control.

With his crutch gone, the prime minister is feeling the heat. His political skills in maintaining the coalition and running the government are now being tested. It is not surprising that many PTI leaders see the neutrality of the security establishment as the result of a deal with the opposition. Some of the prime minister’s remarks at a recent public rally reflected his frustration over the establishment’s stance. The perception of a break-up seems to have caused the breach in the ruling coalition. It remains to be seen whether the prime minister is able to pull through.

It is not just about the no-confidence motion but also the rising political temperature and the danger of public shows of strength turning violent. The prime minister’s aggressive tenor at recent public rallies and his threats to the opposition leaders of dire consequences are ominous. His playing the nationalist card in order to galvanise public support has further vitiated the political atmosphere. He imagines a foreign conspiracy is afoot to destabilise his government. All that has fuelled tensions in the country.

Whatever the outcome of the no-confidence motion, there is little hope of it strengthening the democratic political process in the country. The combined opposition could topple the government, but it may not be the end of political uncertainty in the country as there seems to be no clarity on the part of the disparate opposition groups on their next move.

Read more: The current political crisis will achieve little beyond discrediting the politicians

It may be easy to oust the government through wheeling and dealing, but the real question is whether the opposition combine can handle the serious political, economic and foreign policy challenges facing the country. With unresolved political issues, the role of the security establishment is likely to be strengthened, instead of being diminished. There is a need for a new political and economic charter to take the country out of this cycle of crisis.

The writer is the author of No-Win War — The Paradox of US-Pakistan Relations in Afghanistan’s Shadow.

zhussain100@yahoo.com

Twitter: @hidhussain

Published in Dawn, March 16th, 2022