By tomorrow, at the 94th Academy Awards, the biggest winner in the house will be diversity and inclusivity — after all, who wants to be the Golden Globes, right? (The Globes were boycotted by Hollywood because they weren’t inclusive enough).

Seriously though: one will likely see Hollywood — or at least a 10,000-strong vote bank, representative of the industry — awarding ethnicities, skin colour, minorities, the under-represented, and perhaps as an afterthought, talent.

Will Smith will likely win Best Actor for King Richard, Ariana DeBose will win Best Supporting Actress for West Side Story, Troy Kotsur will win Best Supporting Actor for CODA (the film is now pegged to upset The Power of the Dog in the Best Picture category), Jane Campion will win Best Director for The Power of the Dog, Encanto will win Best Animated Film, and Drive My Car from Japan will win Best International Film (it’s touted as the first film from the country to also get a Best Picture nod; foreign films primarily from non-Caucasian countries getting Best Picture is a relatively new trend). Dune will almost sweep the technicals but, unlike most categories this year, the wins will be on merit.

Expect some upsets here and there (the two Screenplay categories and Best Actress) to keep things interesting, but generally you will have a predictable Oscar ceremony celebrating ‘moderately good’ filmmaking. Perhaps, because, this has been a slow year for ‘excellent’ movies.

Torn between woke culture, the pressure to do good to minorities and having all-around inclusivity, the Oscars have become a dud of a show. But then again, perhaps, the films themselves are to be blamed. Perhaps filmmaking has become far too accessible, and its crafts’ mysteries too publicly unveiled (anyone can learn filmmaking from YouTube now), that the storytelling itself has become predictable.

The magic of seeing intelligent, intellectually stimulating, high-brow cinema, has been lost to a factory-preset. Today, there is a strict formula that goes into producing Oscar-qualifying films; we mostly see stories of conflicted, emotional, distant individuals who will likely strive for something that’s almost within reach. Everyone seems to be doing an ‘adept’ job of nailing this formula.

Diversity and inclusivity will be the key words at tomorrow’s 94th Academy Awards. Despite their own misgivings, Icon’s film reviewers present their assessment about how the Oscar voters will vote

Will Smith in King Richard and Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth (also nominated in Best Actor), range between good and okay, as are the performances from their fellow nominees in all acting categories. The just about Oscar-worthy acting comes from Penelope Cruz (in Pedro Almadovar’s Parallel Mothers), Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), DeBose (West Side Story), Judi Dench (Belfast), Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog), Ciaran Hinds (Belfast) and J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos). The screenplays — especially, CODA, Belfast, Don’t Look Up — also fall under the good-enough category.

The documentaries are much better, like every year. The frontrunner this year is Summer of Soul (…Or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised), about the massive Harlem Cultural Festival of 1969, and why its footage was never picked up by networks.

Fellow nominee Attica is a much better entry; it’s about the infamous 1971 prison break, where the inmates — mostly Hispanics and African-Americans — demanded fairness and were gunned down by the white supremacist law of the state.

There is one major anomaly in the mix this year: Flee — an ingenious mix of narrative, documentary and animation that is nominated in the Best Animation, Documentary and International Film categories. The story about an escaped Afghan refugee and his family is easily the most innovative film in the line-up.

Pity there are very few of these.

tick, tick…Boom!, one of the best films of the year, only has two nominations (Best Actor and Editing), whereas Belfast and West Side Story have seven each, and CODA, another okay film, has three.

CODA, an official remake of La Famille Bélier (2014), has a similar story as Sanjay Leela Bhansali’s Khamoshi: The Musical, which came out the same year as Beyond Silence (1996), which is another film with an eerily similar storyline. All four films are about deaf parents and their daughter who wants to sing or play music.

After watching the entire list of 38 nominated films (excluding shorts, which are hard to come by, and therefore predict), one can almost prophesise who is going to win where. We may not be right in all categories — in fact, we would love to be proven wrong — but this is how we think the industry is voting tomorrow…

Best Picture

While the Baftas are often considered a precursor to the Oscars (they mostly have the same voters and categories), CODA, with its recent win at the Producers Guild Awards (PGA), could very well beat The Power of the Dog in the Best Picture category. This will be the major shocker of the night. We think both titles have an equal chance of winning.
The Power of the Dog: 50%
CODA: 50%

Best Director

This would be Jane Campion’s second Oscar. Her last win was for penning The Piano’s screenplay in 1994. With wins at Bafta and the Directors Guild Awards (DGA), there is little-to-no chance of an upset here. And besides, her fellow nominees are, at best, nomination-worthy only.
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog: 100%

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain’s Oscar-worthy performance in The Eyes of Tammy Faye has become a frontrunner in the Actress category. Taking into consideration her win in the Screen Actors Guild (SAG, an indicator for Oscar night), she should be a shoe-in.

The Baftas, diversified this category by mostly nominating actresses who weren’t in the Oscars or the SAG line-up (Joana Scanlan won for After Love in the Baftas). This complicates matters. We think while Chastain, twice nominated before for Zero Dark Thirty and The Help, has the edge, it is best to not overlook Kirsten Stewart and her portrayal of Princess Diana in Spencer. Olivia Colman, hyped as the second-best bet for her work in The Lost Daughter, already has an Oscar for The Favourite, and a nomination for The Father. We think it will be a toss-up between Chastain and Stewart. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye: 40%
Kristen Stewart, Spencer: 40%
Olivia Colman,
The Lost Daughter: 20%

Best Actor

The Oscars are playing catch-up to Will Smith, who has, so far, three nominations to his name (Ali and The Pursuit of Happyness being the other two). While King Richard does not feature Smith’s best performance, he has incredible momentum after having won both BAFTA and SAG. Andrew Garfield was much better in tick, tick…Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard: 80%
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog: 20%

Best Supporting Actress

Ariana DeBose shares Smith’s momentum of wins and his critics-favourite status for her work in West Side Story. Earlier this year, we pegged Aunjanue Ellis to win for King Richard but, at this stage, it is near-impossible thinking about upsets — but if there are, one shouldn’t dismiss both Ellis and Dunst. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story: 60%
Kristen Dunst,
The Power of the Dog: 20%
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard: 20%

Torn between woke culture, the pressure to do good to minorities and having all-around inclusivity, the Oscars have become a dud of a show. But then again, perhaps, the films themselves are to be blamed.

Best Supporting Actor

In our opinion, Jesse Plemons would have a long-shot in this category. In fact, if he does win, it would be the longest, long-shot in film history. Troy Kotsur, who plays the deaf father in CODA, is deaf in real life, which makes his performance all the more authentic and emotional — and it would be a chance for the Academy to appreciate actors who are under-represented in the field.

Troy Kotsur, CODA: 90%
Jesse Plemons,
The Power of the Dog: 10%

Best Screenplay, Adapted

There will be a fierce three-way battle between The Power of the Dog, CODA and The Lost Daughter. CODA appears to be the favourite, winning both at Bafta and the WGA, but The Lost Daughter, with its category-predicting win in the USC Scripter Awards, is pegged as the upset. We think these are the odds:
Siân Heder, CODA: 40%
Maggie Gyllenhaal,
The Lost Daughter: 30%
Jane Campion,
The Power of the Dog: 30%

Best Screenplay, Original

The fight, if you ask us, is between King Richard (Zach Baylin for his first screenplay), Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson’s 11th Oscar nomination) and Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay in his 7th nomination). McKay already has an Oscar in the Adapted Screenplay Category for The Big Short so, despite his win in the Writers Guild Awards (WGA), we think, like at the Baftas, there is good chance that Anderson will get his first Academy Award tomorrow…unless Baylin secures an upset.
Paul Thomas Anderson,
Licorice Pizza: 40%
Adam MacKay, Don’t Look Up: 30%
Zach Baylin, King Richard: 30%

Best Cinematography

Dune has been sweeping the awards circuit in this and the Score category, so this should be an easy prediction…not that there isn’t worthy competition from The Power of the Dog and The Tragedy of Macbeth and Nightmare Alley. Greig Fraser, the director of photography, has been nominated once before for Lion
Greig Fraser, Dune: 70%
Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog: 10%
Bruno Delbonnel,
The Tragedy of Macbeth: 10%
Dan Lausten, Nightmare Alley: 10%

Best Editing

According to the grapevine, Dune has the lead here. We think this category will confuse Oscar voters, because all five nominees have equal chances of winning. At the Eddie Awards (Editors Guild), King Richard won in the drama category and tick, tick…Boom! won in comedy or musical. Despite musical titles historically winning this category, we may get the winner wrong this year. Myron Kerstein & Andrew Weisblum, tick, tick…Boom!: 50%
Pamela Martin, King Richard: 20%
Joe Walker, Dune: 30%

Best Production Design

Dune should be the clear winner here. Votes for upset will likely come from Nightmare Alley and West Side Story. We personally liked The Tragedy of Macbeth’s minimal, theatre-like design as well.
Dune: 60% Nightmare Alley: 40%

Best Costume Design

Judging purely by the number of costumes and the variety of design, the award would likely go to Cruella. Dune, with its minimalist costume design may be an upset.
Cruella: 70%
Dune: 30%

Best Make-up & Hairstyling

It will a toss-up between The Eyes of Tammy Faye (the prosthetic make-up design was fantastic), and Coming 2 America. We think some Academy voters will cast their ballots to cheer Eddie Murphy’s big return to the movies (his career hasn’t been doing well of late; the sequel to Coming to America was a hit), while others will vote for Tammy Faye, which also faces competition in the Best Actress category. The Make-up and Hairstyling Guild award and Baftas will only confuse voters…but if we were voting, then ours would go to Tammy Faye.
The Eyes of Tammy Faye, 60%
Coming 2 America: 40%

Best Score

Hans Zimmer’s score for Dune is already pegged as the winner. Very few, we think, will disagree.
Dune: 80%
Others: 20%

Best Song

In our opinion, we feel that this has been a ‘meh’ year for songs. According to what we surmise, these are the odds:
Billy Eilish, No Time to Die: 40%
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Encanto: 30%
Beyonce, King Richard: 30%

Best Sound

We still haven’t forgiven the Academy for combining Best Sound Editing and Mixing disciplines into one. As film professionals, voters should have known the difference between the two. Alas, like the Baftas, this category simplifies the voting process, cutting down the confusion for those who couldn’t differentiate between the two. Taking into consideration the Cinema Audio Society’s (CAS) guild award and the Baftas (the Motion Picture Sound Editor’s Guild awards will happen after this article goes to print), Dune seems to be in the lead here.
Dune: 80%
Others: 20%

Best Visual Effects

The Visual Effects Society awarded Dune in the Best Photoreal Visual Effects category. The Baftas did the same. Spider-Man: No Way Home could be an upset, but we doubt it.
Dune: 70%
Spider-Man: No Way Home: 30%

Best Animated Film

This may be another easy category to predict. Encanto has been reigning supreme since the award season began, winning Bafta, PGA, DGA, Eddie, CAS, ADG (Producers, Directors, Editors, Sound and Production Designers Guilds). However, it did miss at the Annie Awards, which are the Oscars of the animation industry (the award went to Mitchells vs the Machines). We think Encanto has the lead, with Mitchells vs the Machines and Flee chasing.
Encanto: 50%
Flee: 30%
Mitchells vs the Machines: 20%

Best Documentary

Like CODA, Summer of Soul has shown strong signs of gaining the lead here in the last few weeks. While we think this is a good documentary, Attica and Flee are our personal favorites.
Summer of Soul: 40%
Attica: 30%
Flee: 30%

Best International Film

Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car is a three-hour-long, sobering film that rightly deserves its four nominations in Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay and International categories. While it may very well lose out in the other categories, there is little-to-no chance that the Palme d’Or- and Bafta-winning film will lose here.
Drive My Car: 70%
Flee: 20%
The Worst Person in the World: 10%

Published in Dawn, ICON, March 27th, 2022