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ECONOMIC stabilisation through tough, unpopular measures such as withdrawal of the fuel subsidy or a cut in development expenditure, against the backdrop of public mobilisation by the Imran Khan-led PTI, seems a daunting challenge for a new coalition government with a wafer-thin majority.
The latest fuel subsidy was given early last month in a desperate gamble to remain in the saddle by a government facing a united opposition, desertion of allies and dissension in the ranks of its own parliamentarians as a no-confidence motion was around the corner.
Although when it announced the subsidy, instead of a regulator-recommended increase, the government said it would manage the cost of the nearly Rs400 billion subsidy till the summer from higher than expected revenues and savings in other areas.
But the widening deficit in less than two months since the subsidy was awarded is sounding alarm bells in the corridors of power as it is abundantly clear the gamble was meant to thwart a likely no-confidence move at the time, and would have been withdrawn as soon as the danger was averted.
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Two things have happened since. One, the vote was successfully carried and the prime minister, despite trying every trick in the bag, including some constitutionally questionable ones, could not stay in office, and one of his arch rivals was elected and sworn into office.
Miftah Ismail’s credentials are not in doubt; how much elbow room he has is.
Second, the former prime minister has not taken kindly to his constitutional ouster from office and has embarked on an aggressive mass mobilisation campaign, relying on incendiary, populist slogans and is threatening to take to the streets to force an immediate election.
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This week, the government categorically said that parliament would complete its term and elections would only be held next year, but Imran Khan’s aggressive campaign, seemingly backed by some renegade elements in a key institution, continues to cast doubts about the incumbents’ longevity.
And this element makes any possible attempt to balance the books fraught with danger. The withdrawal of the fuel subsidy will further spur the back-breaking inflation, particularly for the poor and middle classes, and the voting public will likely punish those it sees as responsible.
When your life is a relentless struggle to put food on the table, it is not surprising that the short-term, rather than the long-term memory, informs your reactions. Who will remember the PTI’s mismanagement and decisions that brought the economy to this pass?
The most likely target for the people’s wrath would be the hand that signed the withdrawal notification. That is why Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif shot down the first summary for a fuel price rise. But this can’t be sustained for too long, as the widening deficit and Islamabad’s commitment to the IMF dictate a changed course.
Perhaps mindful of the consequences of raising this poisoned chalice to its lips the government may consider other options as well to reduce the deficit. And these include a cut in development expenditure.
The proponents of this course argue that roads and bridges and other infrastructure can wait and all the savings from these areas be used to provide targeted relief to the most needy. However, this path isn’t easy either.
Even if parliament is able to complete its term, it has some 16 months to go. Can the governing coalition afford to stay development expenditure in the country, including in swing constituencies, where such projects will likely deliver a political dividend and may be a determinant of who forms the next government?
Some independent economists have high hopes of Finance Minister Miftah Ismail. Even then, given the very few options at his disposal, one wonders if he can pull a rabbit out of his hat. His credentials are not in doubt; how much elbow room he has is.
If meeting these challenges was not enough, the government may have to address another issue that may be equally, or even more, important. Let me explain what I mean. In the Jan 31, 2021, issue of the Dawn’s magazine ‘Eos’ centre spread Carmen Gonzalez, my partner who has been a BBC and Instagram editor, and I covered the topic of ‘fake news’. Here are a few paras from that piece:
“In January 2017, the 45th president of the United States of America was being inaugurated in front of a crowd that — let’s say — wasn’t as large as expected. The live TV images spoke for themselves. The new president’s press secretary swiftly declared this was the ‘largest audience to ever witness an inauguration (…) on the globe’. Challenged about her blatant lie, her response was truly Orwellian. She said her views were ‘alternative facts’.
“Entering truly dystopian territory, Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani told an astonished Chuck Todd of NBC, ‘Truth isn’t truth!’ And to complete the Orwellian scenario, Trump gave a speech in July 2018, where he said: ‘What you’re seeing and what you’re reading is not what’s happening’. Like Orwell warns in 1984, once you are told ‘to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears’, you can expect total alienation.
“The ‘alienated’ assaulted the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, provoked by Trump’s ‘alternative facts’ in a reminder of our very own 2014 ‘D’ Chowk dharna. Trump claimed to have won the November 2020 presidential election. Official data shows Joe Biden got seven million votes more than Trump, giving him 51 per cent of the vote, and 306 seats of the US Electoral College.
“But these ‘alternative facts’ resulted in five dead, dozens arrested; lawmakers’ and their aides’ children terrorised in the crèche inside the Capitol and the US legislature besieged by an inflamed mob. A recent Reuter/Ipsos poll showed 68 per cent of Republican voters still believe the election was rigged, which means a whopping 50 million Americans have no faith in their democracy anymore.”
Need I say more about what we need to tackle head-on?
The writer is a former editor of Dawn.
abbas.nasir@hotmail.com
Published in Dawn, April 24th, 2022
