Amid contradictory claims over the negative impact of Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) on beef/veal meat sales, normal export of big meat and an increase in domestic prices suggests that the outbreak appears to have settled down in Sindh.

Dairy farmers had been clamouring over the LSD outbreak in Sindh farms since November 2021 but the disease had taken its toll from March 2022 thus forcing outdoor and indoor dining lovers to skip big animal meat from their meals. Stakeholders in the catering business also appeared divided as some said that the same approach of ignoring beef was followed by people hosting huge gatherings for marriage, valima and other party receptions, who turned their focus towards chicken and mutton. Others believed that people kept ordering red meat dishes without any fear.

Figures from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics revealed a slight steady trend in the export of meat and meat preparation to 6,722 tonnes in March 2022 fetching $30 million from 6,223 tonnes earning $28.6m in January 2022.

At 95,991 tonnes that fetched $333m, Pakistan’s meat exports were at an all-time high in FY21 versus 83,479 tonnes valuing $304m in FY20 for which the rupee’s devaluation also played a major role.

After a brief spell of panic spread by fears of Lumpy Skin Disease, beef sales have normalised in the domestic market while exports are on a rising trend

CEO PK Meat, Saqib Butt said the March 2022 export figures suggest foreign buyers’ confidence in Pakistani cow meat and meat preparations which hold 90-95 per cent share in the country’s total exports to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Muscat, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait etc.

Besides, the increase in beef and veal rates is also high enough to justify brisk sales of beaf, otherwise, the substantial drop in demand after the outbreak of LSD would have resulted in a huge price fall, he said adding that beef and veal meat prices have surged by 10pc, followed by 15pc hike in mutton prices.

He said mutton prices have been crawling up regularly due to the shifting of beef consumers followed by the lack of farming on a large scale, causing a demand and supply gap.

Owner of Pakistan Pakwan, Abdul Aziz, claimed a 90pc drop in the orders of beef-related dishes in big receptions. However, people are definitely consuming beef and veal meat at home but are avoiding the risk of serving it to guests, he added. Mr Aziz said people are not reluctant to order milk-related sweet dishes.

CEO Usama Catering Mohammad Uzair Imran said consumers used to inquire about beef quality when LSD was at its peak as per media reports. “Truly speaking, I have not witnessed any significant drop from consumers in giving orders for red meat dishes in huge gatherings since Aga Khan Hospital issued a go-ahead that beef is safe for human consumption amid the LSD outbreak in farms,” he said. Mr Imran said beef and veal meat prices have gone up by an average of Rs50 per kg in the last few days.

Convenor All Pakistan Restaurants Association Athar Sultan Chawla said beef orders in restaurants, which had fallen by 50pc in March, have now fully recovered and nobody is bothered about LSD in beef now. “Actually, chicken-related dishes hold 85pc share in restaurants followed by a 5-7pc share for beef and seafood each,” he said adding that beef is usually consumed in Nihari and barbeque dishes like Bihari Kabab, Seekh Kabab, Gola Kabab, etc.

In burgers, chicken enjoys 70pc share as compared to 30pc of beef. In Chinese foods, chicken rules with 80pc share followed by 10pc each share in beef and seafood. “Most ladies do not eat beef,” Mr Chawla claimed.

Spokesperson of All Karachi Milk Retailers and Welfare Association, Waheed Gaddi said “people have resumed milk buying with the start of Ramazan after a 60pc drop in sales in March when media hype had created panic by portraying LSD as a life taking disease.”

Chairman Meat Merchants Association Abdul Majeed said the price of veal with and without bones is now Rs800 and Rs900 per kg respectively while cow meat with and without bones is sold at Rs700 and Rs800 per kg, up by Rs50-100 per kg depending on the area. “Despite LSD, a number of people have continued to eat veal and beef meat in March and April thus keeping the sales normal,” he claimed.

However, the buyers’ shift from veal/beef meat had taken mutton and chicken prices to new peaks. Mutton prices rose to Rs1,700 from Rs1,400 per kg, he said adding the commissioner Karachi’s rate is Rs1,220 per kg for which the association had moved to court to challenge the unrealistic rate. From March to date, chicken meat prices hovered between Rs460-520 per kg while live bird prices ranged between Rs280-330 per kg.

President Dairy and Cattle Farmers Association Shakir Gujjar also claimed that LSD in Sindh is now well under control but fears loom over shifting of the disease to Rahim Yar Khan, DG Khan, Bahawalpur, Cholistan, Sahiwal and Ali Pur. Milk and veal/beef meat are now safe for human consumption but the LSD has wreaked havoc on small farms. Despite repeated attempts, veterinary experts couldn’t be reached for comments on LSD.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, April 25th, 2022