SINCE abruptly ending his long march on May 26, Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf chief Imran Khan appears to be pinning his hopes on the Supreme Court, where his party has filed a petition seeking protection for its right to protest.

On the face of it, this seems to be motivated by earlier events, which saw previous protests being quelled by law enforcement agencies through use of force.

But is this the real reason behind moving court or delaying the announcement of a date for the next phase of long march?

Many think not.

The general impression is that the PTI leadership is using the pretext of litigation to buy time, while matters are settled elsewhere.

It is well known that the PTI has been in talks with the ‘establishment’ since it began the May 25 long march. The channel, which was initiated by the establishment using intermediaries, succeeded in persuading Imran Khan to go back without staging the sit-in on the assurance that dates for dissolution of assemblies and fresh polls would be given soon.

But, things have not progressed well since then.

A sense of disappointment is now visible in the PTI camp as members feel let down. An insider said the stalemate in the talks was because of the massive mistrust between the two sides.

That mistrust isn’t new; it has been there since Mr Khan was ousted from power. Even when he took the establishment’s word and did not stage the planned sit-in for pressing for early elections, the suspicions were still there.

Then, there must be something else that is preventing the progress. When pressed, the source identified differences between the PTI and establishment over the former’s return to the National Assembly after withdrawing their resignations and announcement of the date for next elections as the biggest sticking point in the talks.

“It’s a chicken and egg situation,” the source maintained.

The PTI wants an election date before its return to the National Assembly, while the establishment wants things to go in the other direction. Imran Khan fears that if the PTI goes back to the assembly without securing an election date, then it will become “business as usual” and the government will get a chance to complete the remaining tenure. Moreover, he thinks the party’s narrative that it will not accept the PML-N-led coalition government, which it calls “imported government”, will suffer damage.

At the same time there is a realisation in the PTI camp that there is no way forward except for successful negotiations with the establishment. Therefore, it is unlikely that Mr Khan will announce the date for the next round of ‘Azadi March’ till the talks go one way or the other.

The sense in the ruling coalition is, however, exactly opposite. Senior cadres on that side of the divide claim that an understanding with the establishment on the continuation of the current set-up has been reached.

Their argument is that the government would not have gone for major hikes in fuel and electricity prices without securing some commitments from the real powers.

“Why would have we put so much of our political capital at stake by raising petrol and electricity prices if we were thinking of going into elections,” one leader said.

Whatsoever is the case, it’s clear that the establishment will be the final arbiter on whether or not elections will be held this year.

Against this backdrop, an interesting development is taking place, which should be watched out. An internal discussion in the PTI has begun on initiating dialogue with other political forces on ending external interventions in the political processes. Can this set the stage for a Charter of Democracy-II. This too depends on how the establishment plays from here on.

Published in Dawn, June 4th, 2022