IT makes perfect sense for Imran Khan to keep things on the boil; what is mind-boggling is that the government and the establishment too are making it easy for the populist leader to play to his strengths.

As the economy started to show signs of coming out of the dire straits where the last government left it, with the rupee starting to regain its dramatic losses to the dollar since the change at the helm and the Pakistan Stock Exchange reversing its string of losses, the PTI was gifted the Shahbaz Gill saga.

What the former prime minister’s chief of staff said on ARY News may have been tantamount to a call to rebellion to the army rank and file, but the manner in which he was booked, arrested and dealt with seems to have given a fresh fillip to Imran Khan’s narrative.

Editorial: It seems consensus has been reached within PTI that Shahbaz Gill definitely did cross a line

To the average PTI supporter, it made no difference that PTI’s Punjab Home Minister Hashim Dogar said that he talked to Mr Gill at Adiala Jail and the latter had not been ‘tortured’, because the leader Imran Khan came out with serious allegations of torture, including sexual abuse.

In all likelihood, elections will be held next year with the coalition getting some time to win back support lost due to inflation.

Whether the government had a hand in the alleged third-degree treatment meted out to Mr Gill or whether someone else was responsible, or even if nothing happened at all was immaterial, as the government showed no inclination to order an inquiry into the allegations.

As these lines were being written, PTI had called on its supporters to gather in various city centres to protest against Gill’s torture, and if sizable crowds gather, then the authorities shall have handed the party another cause to agitate over — something PTI excels at.

If Mr Gill was indeed tortured, then no condemnation is enough; as even if a law was broken or a cognisable offence committed, there is a perfectly legitimate way to enforce the law. Torture is unacceptable. It is barbaric and should have no place in 21st-century Pakistan.

The PTI will likely go into the by-elections on the National Assembly seats vacated by the resignation of some of its MNAs buoyed by the Gill episode, as it will help the party maintain its mobilisation and momentum.

A source close to the establishment suggested that Mr Gill was made an example of what happens when ‘red lines’ are crossed and added that the authorities were now certain all others in the party will stop way short of going ‘overboard’.

Whatever the purpose the arrest was meant to serve, it will give a boost to the PTI. Let’s see if the governing alliance has a political game plan to counter the PTI or if the latter will coast home in these by-elections and retain its seats, just as it did in the Punjab Assembly by-elections last month.

The one big fallout of the Gill saga was that it relegated to second place the devastation caused by rain and consequent flooding in Balochistan, Sindh and southern Punjab. Dozens have lost their lives, thousands of people have been rendered destitute as their mud homes collapsed and there has been widespread damage to crops.

Hope and pray that substantial aid gets to those worst affected so they are provided succour and shelter in the short term and helped to get back on their own feet in the medium to long term. Like everything else, nature too hits the poorest the hardest.

So far, there are no estimates of how much of a setback will be caused to the economy by the rain and floods. One can only hope that the losses are not so severe that they wipe out all the gains of recent days, for which the shirtless in particular offered huge sacrifices by trying to survive in such highly inflationary times after the government withdrew the suicidal fuel subsidies given by the PTI in a desperate bid to cling on to power.

By the end of this month, the IMF board will have formally approved the staff-level agreement reached with Pakistan and disbursement of funds will start. Along with the IMF tranche, some more funds will begin to land in Pakistan from friendly countries to further boost the forex reserves and eliminate the spectre of default that seemed a very real possibility just a few weeks ago.

Another calming factor would be the announcement regarding the change in command at the top of the army. For several months now, insiders have explained away a lot of political jostling by attributing it to the desire of many power centres to make the decision.

Read: Who will be the next army chief?

It is clear that the decision won’t be made by former prime minister Imran Khan. I suspect it will now be the incumbent army chief and the prime minister, with the inevitable input from his elder brother, who will decide.

Against this backdrop, in all likelihood, elections will be held next year, with the coalition getting some time to win back support lost due to the backlash triggered by debilitating inflation. It will also mean the PML-N will have 12 months to set its own house in order and stop the public bickering that is exposing the infighting in the party.

At the same time, PDM parties will need to acknowledge that the PTI is miles ahead of them in the messaging game and narrative-building department and uses social media to telling effect. No matter how much moral high ground one party or the other claims, each knows what is important is for its message to be believed by the electorate, even if it is being economical with the truth.

And one party is more economical with the truth than others. But its supporters accept its claims, often spurious, as believers would accept the gospel. If other parties have no strategy, no architecture to counter this, the battle is lost before it starts. All these factors make for an interesting year in prospect.

The writer is a former editor of Dawn.
abbas.nasir@hotmail.com

Published in Dawn, August 21st, 2022