KARACHI: Outbreaks of lumpy skin disease (LSD) — caused by a debilitating virus in cattle — have increased meat prices across the country, though traders also point out other factors, such as a devastating monsoon and higher fuel prices.

The disease has affected sales and production in all provinces, with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa being the hardest hit in terms of death percentage in animals.

The LSD does not affect people and is thought to be spread by flies or mosquitoes, causing nodules to form on the skin, with accompanying symptoms such as much lower milk production. It can sometimes be fatal.

At 5pc, KP has the highest percentage of LSD-related animal deaths

Sindh

In Karachi, beef currently sells for Rs700 to Rs900 per kilogram while mutton prices range from Rs1,600 to Rs2,200.

“There has been no change in meat prices in the last three months. However, animals are in short supply as persistent heavy downpours in the interior parts of Sindh have restricted movement and many farmers have lost their animals,” said Abdul Latif Qureshi of the Livestock Traders Welfare Association.

He said the disease didn’t play a major role in higher meat prices, which had mainly been driven by an overall impact of high inflation.

Dr Nazeer Hussain Kalhoro, the director general of Sindh’s livestock department and head of the provincial task force on LSD, blamed little investment in the sector for high meat prices.

“I believe LSD’s role was 20 per cent in meat prices. The situation has more to do with little public and private sector investment. We continue to rely on traditional farming in the face of high meat consumption,” he said.

He said the LSD situation was under control in Sindh, except Tharparkar and desert areas of Umerkot, where five to 10 cases were being reported daily.

“This region sees major (uncontrolled) animal movement following monsoon as the whole area has turned green (after heavy rains) and farmers across Sindh as well as from Punjab bring their cattle for free land and fodder,” he said, suggesting some unvaccinated herds might have been the source of disease spread.

Besides, the refusal on the part of farmers to get their animals vaccinated also played a major role in the spread. “This region was almost LSD-free from January to June, which made farmers complacent,” he said.

An LSD outbreak was reported in the first week of March in Sindh, affecting several cattle farms in the province, including Karachi.

According to the provincial task force, 53,668 LSD cases have been reported since March in Sindh, killing 571 animals (around 1pc of the total cases) while 53,072 have recovered.

“These cases are only reported in cows. No buffalo or any other animal or human has been affected so far. Consumption of milk and meat is safe these days for human health,” it says.

Experts agree that the shortage of animals would become severe in the coming months due to huge livestock losses in floods, causing a subsequent increase in its prices. Animal mortality, according to the livestock department data, currently stands at 70,000.

Punjab

The LSD entered Punjab from Sindh and initially hit southern parts, but it has now travelled up to the central part of the province, according to farmers and officials of the provincial livestock department.

“Though the disease affects cattle, even calves are losing their monetary value because of fear,” says Abad Khan, a livestock farmer from central Punjab.

Livestock officials, however, believe the numbers are now stabilising as the province has so far vaccinated 15pc of the cattle population. A high-ranking official of the livestock department said the province was planning a one-time import of six million doses to cover the entire animal population.

Of the 14.6m cattle population, 29,620 cases have been reported so far, leading to 765 deaths (2.6pc of the total cases) while recoveries stand at 21,720, he said.

“It is because Punjab is vaccinating at a much faster pace than the spread. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the mortality rate has so far gone beyond 4pc. Punjab has two consolation points: the actual rate of spread is slow and the LSD does not jump to humans. The beef and milk of infected cattle do not infect humans,” he said.

Farmers, however, think that their cost is increasing even if statistics are lower.

Balochistan

Balochistan has not been spared either. Abdul Samad, president of a provincial beef sellers’ association, said his sales plummeted more than 40pc after the LSD spread in Sindh and some parts of Balochistan as the disease has scared consumers away.

“Everyone who enters the shop first asks about the lumpy skin disease and doesn’t proceed to order until satisfied,” said Mr Samad, who has been running his beef shop for 30 years at Kasi Road, the main meat, mutton and vegetable market in Quetta.

Most shopkeepers struggle to sell even one animal throughout the day, which stands in stark contrast to the past when selling two to three big size animals was normal.

Livestock department officials also confirmed a decline in cattle sales in the wake of LSD. Dr Kamran, director general of Balochistan’s livestock department, told Dawn LSD cases were reported in Zhob, Duki and Lasbela districts in February.

Mostly cows and bulls got infected from this disease, he said, adding that “we immediately started vaccinating animals in affected areas soon after cases started to emerge”.

“We have so far vaccinated around 20,000 animals, not only in those areas where cases were reported but also in other areas of the province,” he said. Animal husbandry doctors have been deputed to check animals coming from Punjab, Sindh and other areas.

Abdul Samad said cow and bull imports dropped due to lumpy skin disease, increasing the price of beef in Quetta and other areas. “Beef is now selling for Rs800 per kg compared to Rs600 to Rs650 sometime back,” he said.

Tameezuddin, who exports beef to Gulf states, lamented a decline in sales, saying importers were not placing orders from Dubai and other countries. “Our exports have dropped by up to 40pc to 50pc,” he said.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

The province has reported 46,343 LSD cases, leading to 2,366 deaths — a whopping 5pc of the total infections.

Districts that took the brunt included Kurram, Lakki Marwat, Kohat, Karak Bannu, Dera Ismail Khan, Haripur, Mansehra and Swabi.

Read: Bracing for a second wave of the lumpy skin disease

Current financial losses from the disease have been estimated at Rs2 billion. Official data shows that of the total population of 8.84m cattle and morbidity and motility ratio of 15pc and 2.5pc, respectively, annual dairy losses would come to about 337m litres and beef losses to 17.2m kilograms.

“It’s a huge challenge,” Dr Alamzeb, director general of the KP livestock department, told Dawn. “We estimate annual losses at Rs50bn if the situation is not properly handled.”

He said his department required Rs5bn to treat sick animals and vaccinate the ones at risk to overcome this highly contagious disease.

AJK

In Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), the first LSD case was reported in the first week of June, prompting the region’s animal husbandry department to deploy inspection teams at all entry points to prevent the entrance of affected animals from Punjab and KP provinces, the territory’s chief vet said.

Dr Ijaz Khan, the department’s director general, told Dawn a Lahore-based company that was the only local vaccine manufacturer had pledged to sell 120,000 doses to the department.

“We have so far received 80,000 doses from them, all of which were administered during a door-to-door vaccination drive across the state at a cost of Rs10 per dose,” he said, adding that his team had administered another 22,302 doses, purchased by livestock owners on their own.

Mr Khan said AJK had a cattle population of 545,239 and as of Aug 30, as many as 7,803 cases of affected animals had been reported from different areas, mostly from the southern Mirpur and Bhimber districts. Of those, 637 cattle had died while 6,246 had recovered, he added.

He said AJK Prime Minister Sardar Tanveer Ilyas had sanctioned Rs150m to import vaccines on an urgent basis so that all cattle in the region could be vaccinated over the next three months.

Traders say panic has also aggravated the situation, as the people have stopped buying even mutton. “Our business has been ruined under the influence of a negative campaign on social media,” Syed Yasir Shah, general secretary of Muzaffarabad’s Anjuman-i-Qasaban (butchers’ association), lamented.

Flood-related animal deaths

Besides LSD, devastating floods have also claimed hundreds and thousands of animals.

Balochistan lost some 700,000 animals, including heads of cattle and sheep, to the five strong monsoon spells and resultant flash floods.

Mir Ziaullah Langove, the provincial home minister, told Dawn Balochistan might face livestock shortage in the coming days, which would ultimately affect meat supply and lead to higher prices.

Livestock deaths in Punjab stood at 205,104 as of Aug 31, official data shows, including 200,667 in Rajanpur alone, where floods rendered a large number of people poor, dead or homeless.

In Sindh, flood-related livestock casualties have been recorded at over 18,000.

In KP, more than 9,000 cattle heads perished in the floods, according to official figures. Total agricultural and livestock losses in the province have been estimated at Rs1.89bn.

Ismail Khan in Peshawar, Faiza Ilyas in Karachi, Ahmad Fraz Khan in Lahore, Saleem Shahid in Quetta and Tariq Naqash in Muzaffarabad contributed to this report

Published in Dawn, September 5th, 2022