WAR is among the major constants of history. Peace is merely a period between two wars. After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989, the United States (US) emerged as the sole superpower and wielded authority unrestrictedly, even bypassing the United Nations (UN) charter by invading Iraq.

However, this unipolar moment was soon challenged by the rise of contending power, China, an economic giant with the second-largest economy of $19.5 trillion and is poised to take the top slot by 2030, according to the predictions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This was followed by an exuberant increase in defence expenditure from $65billion to $178billion within a decade and modernisation of its naval force.

This economic and military prowess of China led to the two giants vying for global supremacy. The US has been implying all possible measures, ranging from trade war, anti-China alliances, like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS), to provoking Taiwan against China to maintain its sway in world order.

The Taiwan conundrum is about the political status of the island nation. China asserts it as a province under ‘one country, two systems’ policy, while the US prefers having the ‘policy of strategic ambiguity’, and has engaged with Taiwan in multiple spheres.

Its recent manifestations include a visit to the island nation by the third highest American official, Nancy Pelosi, and the US deal to sell modern military equipment worth $1.2billion. All this is ringing alarms in Beijing.

It is a shift from the policy of strategic ambiguity to complete defence assurance. Recently, US President Joe Biden declared that American forces would defend Taiwan from Chinese invasion at all costs. This abrupt and unexpected reversal has grave repercussions for regional as well as global peace.

In contemporary times, global peace is hanging by a delicate thread. Any development has the potential to dismantle the entire politico-economic and social fabric. Multidimensional challenges, such as the spectre of climate change, fallouts of Covid-19, the Russia-Ukraine war, energy crisis and the looming economic stagnation, have already engulfed the world, and now we have another conundrum in the shape of Taiwan crisis.

This issue is the greatest threat now among all because it will bring two major powers, and subsequently their allies, in direct confrontation with one another. This will mean destruction on a mass scale. The ongoing confrontation between Russia and Ukraine is a threat, particularly for Europe which is already having an acute energy shortage after the closure of gas supply from Russia which constituted almost 40 per cent of its total demand. As a consequence, liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices have soared in the open market.

Similarly, oil prices have skyrocketed because of the ban over sale of Russian oil, and resulting in imbalance in global supply and demand. Lack of access to vast deposits of Ukrainian grain to the world market is also causing a food crisis, especially in the least developed countries.

Therefore, in such circumstances, any new conflict has the potential to plunge the world into a complete disaster.

Global leaders need to show restraint, and act in accordance with the UN charter to make this world a place worth living.

Mohsin Qamar
Chiniot

Published in Dawn, October 8th, 2022