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RINGING out the old and ringing in the new at the turn of the year invariably involves wishful thinking. Mostly, the detritus of the recent past flows pretty much seamlessly across the temporal boundary.
But there are memorable exceptions — just as there are rare occasions when the frequently fruitless concept of new year resolutions is substituted by the refreshing reality of new year revolutions: Haiti in 1804 comes to mind, alongside Cuba in 1959, and the Mexican state of Chiapas in 1994.
At the cusp of 2023, the presidential transition in Brazil from Jair Bolsonaro to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva serves as the clearest example of renewed hope. Small wonder, then, that the new president’s third inauguration was greeted with a ‘Lulapalooza’ on Jan 1, notwithstanding the foreknowledge of a rather more sombre occasion the following day: the funeral of the universally popular footballer known as Pelé.
Pelé’s renown rests primarily on his remarkable abilities as a goal-scorer. It remains to be seen how many of his declared goals Lula will be able to kick. Like most other left-leaning leaders in Latin America, from Mexico to Chile, he will struggle to meet popular expectations amid conditions that are rather less benign than what he encountered during his first two terms.
Silver linings disrupt even the bleakest of skies.
That’s not to suggest that the hopes placed in the switch to a broadly progressive agenda from one that leaned towards fascism are misplaced. Even Lula’s failures are likely to prove less harmful than the ‘successes’ of his noxious predecessor, who fled to Florida — emulating his mate Donald Trump — to avoid the humiliation of handing over the presidential sash to his regime’s most prominent former prisoner.
A reverse phenomenon was in play just days earlier in Israel, where the inauguration of Benjamin Netanyahu’s sixth administration has raised hackles even among fervent Zionists. Rights groups and UN organs found 2022 to be the deadliest year for Palestinians since the last intifada ended in 2005, and much worse — including further formal annexation of the occupied West Bank — lies in store.
Much of the concern focuses on the fate of democracy and the rights of women and LGBTQI communities, which is fair enough. What is jarring is the assumption that this is somehow a break from the past. Israel has inexorably been on a trajectory towards right-wing extremism for many years. The new government is the logical conclusion of trends that have not been obvious only to blinkered observers. The idea that a two-state solution is suddenly at risk is utterly absurd; that dream died decades ago.
The US often struggles to influence its allies and ‘frenemies’, let alone rivals or foes. In the case of Israel, though, it would be fairly simple to turn on the pressure valve. That’s hardly likely in the foreseeable future. The US isn’t even capable of withdrawing the support that encourages Saudi Arabia to pursue its pernicious aggression in Yemen.
Curtailing conflicts goes against the interests of America’s lucrative arms export industry; adding fuel to the fire in Ukraine serves more than one purpose. Volodymyr Zelensky effectively pointed that out during his recent visit to Washington when he said the US should see military aid not as charity but as an investment. Notwithstanding mounting Nato provocations and Zelensky’s willingness to be cast as a poster boy for Western hegemony, the war — likely to linger on without resolution in the year ahead — is Vladimir Putin’s baby, and the damage it is inflicting in Ukraine may eventually prove easier to repair than the harm it is doing to Russia.
The unrelenting focus on Ukraine, and on potential future flashpoints such as Taiwan or North Korea, comes at the expense of virtually ignoring the far deadlier conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Black lives continue to not matter all that much. Iran is on the Western radar by virtue of being a designated foe, but its disorganised rebellion against the obscurantist values of the ruling clergy attracts little assistance apart from words of encouragement. Which is perhaps just as well.
The eventual overthrow of the Islamic Republic, much like that of the Shah, must come from within, preferably led by women, who have spearheaded the revolt in the face of repression despite death sentences and recurring tales of prison horror. Even less attention is focused on neighbouring Afghanistan, where the most wretched elements among the Taliban have effectively stripped away women’s right to education and gainful employment.
Will such travesties and innumerable others — from the rising tide of fascism in Europe to the lip service paid to efforts to thwart catastrophic climate change — determine the shape of things to come? Well, let’s not forget the growing movements determined to contest such a future, and remind ourselves that the struggles carry on, and the consequences often surprise us. That’s precisely why hope springs eternal.
Published in Dawn, January 4th, 2023
