ISLAMABAD: Defence and geopolitical experts from Pakistan and China at a webinar on Saturday warned of severe economic repercussions of the increasing US-Taiwan military collaboration.

Overwhelming approval of the Taiwan Policy Act 2022 by the US Senate seems a green signal to setting up a near future war field in the Asia-Pacific. It is believed that it would have the most profound impact on the bilateral diplomacy and arms sales, covering broad security and military assistance to support Taiwan against potential threats from Beijing.

Though the experts did not rule out the chances of war between China and Taiwan, they observed: “China will not initiate the war while the US would try to impose on it to stop its economic spread.” The US-Taiwan new strategic partnership is also worrisome for the people of both China and Taiwan as they all believe in peace and security.

According to a statement, the webinar was organised by Devcom-Pakistan. Retired Lt Gen Talat Masood was the keynote speaker while other speakers included retired ambassador Naghmana Naheed Hashmi, geopolitical analyst from Chengdu (China) Dr Dan Ge and co-chair of the News One Media Group Seema Tahe.

Mr Masood said Taiwan’s heavy militarisation was unwarranted and will cause a severe dent to the peace and stability not only of the region but global too.

“A weaker China will cause recession in the developed world too. No other theory will succeed but the reunification of China. Historically, Taiwan has been part of China, but never reverted back to after the end of WW-II as it was agreed among the warring countries.”

China’s economic, strategic and military growth is unprecedented in a short span of time. Its economic position will be stronger in the coming years. China is likely to take over the entire US economy, and this is what scares the US. China’s containment is not possible at this time, even engaging it in a war. The military strength is much better though not more than the US, but the Chinese people and their army is more resilient, he said.

Ms Hashmi said: “One of the two centennial goals of China is the return of the lost territories and reunification of China and rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049. For China, Taiwan is important for its sovereignty and territorial integrity as it is historically an integral part of China.”

It was clear that China would not allow external interfering forces and internal separatist forces to jointly conspire to undermine its sovereignty, security and territorial integrity. She said China had clearly manifested its intention to defend its core interests and to take all counter measures and it will exercise all rights that a sovereign country has to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Talking about the dynamic stability of US-China-Taiwan, Dr Dan Ge said the US had continuous provocations in the South-China Sea especially at Taiwan Strait despite having formal diplomatic ties with China and officially recognising the one-China policy. Meanwhile, it has no endorsement of the one-China policy and thereby maintains a robust unofficial relationship with Taiwan, including selling it arms.

On the other hand, China always showed utmost tolerance and restraint towards the US provocations.

“Taiwan’s ruling party has been promoting independence through multiple ways, including the modification of textbooks and diplomatic wordings,” she said.

Ms Taher said China’s economic spread cannot be curtailed. “China is not only an economic might but its military strength is also unchallengable. Pakistan and its people are on the China side in any case though Pakistan is going through the challenge of balancing diplomatic ties with all strategic partners,” she said.

Devcom-Pakistan Executive Director Munir Ahmed said the Taiwan Policy Act 2022 created a new initiative to bolster Taiwan’s defence capabilities, providing almost $4.5 billion in security assistance over the next four years and designating Taiwan as a “major non-Nato ally.”

Published in Dawn, January 22nd, 2023