ISLAMABAD: The United Nations Children’s Fund (Unicef) says the return of South Asia to normalcy is now hindered by a less favourable international political climate and a new global standard of living crisis reflecting high food, fuel and fertiliser prices in international market this year.

The report, “Responding today for tomorrow: South Asia”, published on Friday, says these are driven or exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, supply chain bottlenecks, largely due to continued Omicron-related lockdowns in China, aggressive hikes in international lending rates in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Develop­ment (OECD) countries and a sharply appreciating dollar.

These factors, the report says, weaken the post-lockdown recovery in South Asia and retroactively raise the effective cost of government efforts over the last two years to shield livelihoods and productive capacity during the pandemic at the cost of higher public debt.

It is yet to be seen to what degree extreme weather events in 2022 and the higher prices of fertiliser and fuel have undermined income from agriculture, the main employer of low-income families in much of the region, which remains vulnerable to climate change, Unicef report on South Asia says.

In countries, with current (trade) accounts and balances of payments, however, the inflated food, fuel, and financing costs are already causing havoc — worsening macroeconomic stability and calling for policy adjustments.

Strategic investment recommended for child-centred reforms

Prior to Covid-19, all eight countries of South Asia were experiencing rapid economic growth. Over two years later, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan — the richest and the poorest country in the region, respectively — are now outliers in continuing to see negative or weak growth respectively. The six other countries are back to prior growth trajectories, with Bangladesh, India and the Maldives posting particularly strong economic growth despite current global headwinds, and this is clearly a success, the report says.

However, to continue with robust and sustainable economic growth and intensify labour productivity, countries will increasingly need a workforce that is not just abundant but also healthy, resilient and well-trained.

In facing today’s layered challenges, children, women and their families in the eight countries of South Asia are facing three major risks.

First, the balance of payment pressures and current account deficits could lead to macroeconomic adjustment policies slowing socioeconomic recovery and triggering a standard of living crisis among vulnerable populations.

Second, concerns around macroeconomic adjustment may crowd out the much-needed political attention on — and fiscal space for — addressing the lasting effects of the Covid-19 crisis on children and women. This is a serious risk as the next section highlights: unless Covid-19 related setbacks are addressed in due course, the scars on millions of children’s anthropometric and cognitive development, social skills and mental health caused by the lockdown years will become permanent.

Third, the Covid-19 impacts on children and the threatening standard of living crisis overlap, to varying extents, with a number of entrenched forms of disadvantage in the region that require sustained action for children’s rights, gender equality, and human rights.

Households with children had already a higher-than-average risk of living in monetary poverty before the pandemic. The 2022-23 standard of living crisis will be first of all a children’s crisis because children and their families will be the most vulnerable to its impacts. As these will be layered on top of the damage done by the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, as well as the gaps related to the unfinished equity agenda for children, they will necessitate redoubled attention, effort, and investment. Nothing less will be capable of delivering on the human rights of children across South Asia, or the long-term economic potential of the region.

Experience shows that reforms that open new development pathways for countries have often been triggered by hard times. The report retains that although families with children look into the future with concern across the globe, South Asia has a high chance to find a path out of the current challenges. Even today, South Asia is one of the few regions in the world where prospects for economic growth remain. Acting now to make cost-effective investments in children’s health, nutrition, learning, safety and well-being is one of the most surefire ways to secure long-term social and economic growth for the region, the report says.

Such investments need not be costly, but they must be strategic, focusing particularly on safeguarding the investment in human capital — especially the cognitive capital of children in the early years — and ensuring child-centred reforms in the health, education, social protection and child protection systems.

Published in Dawn, February 25th, 2023