IMF chief warns risks to financial stability have increased

Published March 26, 2023
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at the China Development Forum 2023, in Beijing, China, March 26. — Reuters
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at the China Development Forum 2023, in Beijing, China, March 26. — Reuters

International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva warned on Sunday that risks to financial stability had increased and stressed “the need for vigilance” following the recent turmoil in the banking sector.

Speaking at a forum in Beijing, the IMF managing director said she expected 2023 “to be another challenging year”, with global growth slowing to below 3.0 per cent due the war in Ukraine, monetary tightening and “scarring” from the pandemic.

“Uncertainties are exceptionally high,” with the outlook for the global economy likely to remain weak over the medium term, she told the China Development Forum.

“It is also clear that risks to financial stability have increased,” she added.

“At a time of higher debt levels, the rapid transition from a prolonged period of low interest rates to much higher rates — necessary to fight inflation — inevitably generates stresses and vulnerabilities, as evidenced by recent developments in the banking sector in some advanced economies.”

Her comments came after the financial sector was shaken by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the enforced takeover of Swiss bank Credit Suisse by rival UBS, leading to fears of contagion.

Bank shares tumbled on Friday as fears about the health of the financial sector resurfaced, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz forced to give reassurances about Deutsche Bank after the long-troubled lender became a focus of investor concerns.

Georgieva said policymakers had acted decisively in response to financial stability risks.

“These actions have eased market stress to some extent, but uncertainty is high which underscores the need for vigilance,” she said.

The IMF chief, however, pointed to China’s rebound as a bright spot for the world economy.

The IMF forecasts China’s economy to grow 5.2pc this year, driven by a rebound in private consumption as the country reopens after its pandemic isolation.

“The robust rebound means China is set to account for around one third of global growth in 2023 — giving a welcome lift to the world economy,” she said.

“A 1.0 percentage point increase in GDP growth in China leads to 0.3 percentage point increase in growth in other Asian economies, on average — a welcome boost.”

Georgieva urged China’s policymakers to seek to raise productivity and rebalance the economy away from investment and towards more durable consumption-driven growth.

“Market-oriented reforms to level the playing field between the private sector and state-owned enterprises, together with investments in education, would significantly lift the economy’s productive capacity,” she said.

Follow Dawn Business on Twitter, LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook for insights on business, finance and tech from Pakistan and across the world.

Opinion

Age of anger

Age of anger

Discussions on Pakistani politics can be so focused on personalities that little else seems to matter.

Editorial

Charter of economy
Updated 31 Dec, 2024

Charter of economy

Before a consensus on economy is sought, the govt must resolve tensions with the opposition and reduce political temperatures.
Madressah compromise
31 Dec, 2024

Madressah compromise

A CLASH between the ruling coalition and the clerical old guard over the Societies Registration (Amendment) Act,...
Safety at work
31 Dec, 2024

Safety at work

PAKISTAN’S first comprehensive occupational safety and health (OSH) profile exposes the inadequacies of worker...
Climate reckoning
Updated 30 Dec, 2024

Climate reckoning

Pakistan cannot afford to wait for global consensus to act. We are indeed living in what scientists describe as “a dangerous new era”.
SOE burden
Updated 30 Dec, 2024

SOE burden

PAKISTAN’S state-owned enterprises are haemorrhaging, putting a tremendous burden on the debt-ridden ...
Unlearning hate
30 Dec, 2024

Unlearning hate

THE problem of xenophobia and intolerance are deep-rooted in our society. An important study conducted some years ...