Even though Finance Minister Ishaq Dar in his National Assembly speech on Friday claimed that he had made a “responsible budget”, instead of an election or political budget, there are many — even in his own party — who are not ready to believe him.

Moreover, they say, the government employees have not got such a huge increase at least in the last decade and even at a time when the economy was in a much better shape than today. All such steps, according to them, indicate that the government has perhaps made up its mind to go into the elections after completion of the term of the present National Assembly in August this year, with the hope that the PTI would have also been ‘fixed’ by that time.

Talking to Dawn, a number of key political figures and political experts opined that the populist measures announced in the budget by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)-led coalition government clearly indicated that the country would go into elections later this year.

They are of the opinion that the ruling coalition had announced the measures which could not be implemented on long-term basis in the absence of the money from the international lenders in the form of loans or without printing more currency notes which will cause further inflation in the country.

Despite finance minister’s protestations, observers say fiscal plan heavily influenced by looming electoral exercise

A key PML-N parliamentarian said the government had announced a tax-free budget with a number of steps aimed at providing relief to the masses, including huge raise in the salaries and pensions of the government employees, without even getting a bailout package by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) clearly showed that it was a budget keeping in mind the elections in the next four to five months.

He said it seemed that Mr Dar had finally surrendered to the political pressure as he had not taken any “tough decisions” which were expected from him in the absence of the IMF package.

“I was previously of the view that the elections might be held in October or November, this year. After seeing this budget, it seems that it will happen,” said president Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (Pildat) Ahmed Bilal Mehboob.

Mr Mehboob was of the view that the government had announced a short-term budget keeping in mind the next elections. Knowing that the new government could bring changes into it through a supplementary budget after winning the elections.

When asked if the parties in the ruling coalition would get benefit from the budget as its impact would be felt perhaps after one year, Mr Mehboob said the government might cash in on the “impression” it had created in the minds of the common people by announcing some relief measures and by announcing up to 35 per cent increase in the salaries of the government employees.

PML-N senator Mushahid Hussain Sayed said that despite facing serious financial challenges, the government had shown great generosity by announcing relief measures for the masses.

He said it was a “populist budget” in which lower sections of the society and those facing financial hardships had been provided “relief” to a great extent.

The PML-N senator, however, said that there were no long term measures in the budget to bring back the economy on track and to bring more people into the tax net. Similarly, he said, no steps were seen in the budget to catch the big tax evaders and mafias operating in the country.

Another PML-N parliamentarian Qaiser Ahmed Sheikh was of the view that it was a “normal budget”, claiming that the government had no plan to deviate from the constitution to delay the elections.

Mr Sheikh, who is also the chairman of the National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance, however, claimed that it was a realistic budget and the government had prepared it keeping in mind the prevailing financial situation and the ground realities.

When asked from where the government would get money to bear this extra burden in the shape of increase in the salaries, he said, everything had been given in the budget document.

Definitely, he said, the government would have to borrow money or print the currency. He, however, said the finance minister in his speech had himself stated that the country would be facing a 21 per cent inflation, which was still high but it would be lower than the present record inflation of over 29pc.

Mr Sheikh said that the PML-N was fully prepared for the elections and it had allocated reasonable funds for the PSDP. Besides this, he said, the government had focused on youth, information technology, solar energy and agriculture which was one of the major demands of the IMF.

Published in Dawn, June 10th, 2023