ISLAMABAD: One in five people in South Asia are estimated to be at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling and safe indoor temperatures which are not a luxury but a development imperative, says a World Bank report titled, ‘Thermal Comfort and Indoor Air Quality in South Asia’.

As temperatures rise because of the climate change, demand for cooling and ventilation is expected to skyrocket, with large energy and climate implications, the report says.

Released on Monday, the report focuses on buildings in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, while covering South Asian countries, including Afghanistan, Bhutan, the Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.

Overall, the report highlights the potential of passive interventions at early stages of the design process, such as improving building orientation and layout, for cost-effective, low-carbon cooling and ventilation throughout South Asia.

World Bank urges concerted efforts to prepare region for higher temperatures, extreme heat

The report says that concerted efforts are required to prepare South Asia for higher temperatures and extreme heat. It is essential to design, construct and operate buildings that adapt to the changing climate while sufficiently satisfying the cooling and ventilation needs of the region’s growing population.

Exposure to air pollution contributes to nearly 20 per cent of all causes of death and exacerbates acute and chronic respiratory illnesses in millions of people in South Asia. The region has one of the highest concentrations of black carbon emissions globally, emanating from vehicles, stoves, agricultural practices and industries.

Most air contaminants are often found at the highest levels in densely-populated metropolitan regions and industrialised zones. Ozone and ammonia are the exceptions, which are frequently higher in rural locations. Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan consistently rank among the world’s top four countries in terms of air pollution, while 42 out of the 50 cities with the poorest air quality are in South Asia

South Asia is home to 23 per cent (1.9 billion) of the world’s population and it faces significant risks due to climate change. These effects are expected to intensify with rising regional temperatures and magnitude of climate change.

Around 46 per cent of the total population has access to electricity. This, coupled with the exponentially rising electricity consumption and emissions, suggests that buildings in future will need to find ways to deliver cooling and ventilation without increasing the carbon footprint.

Climate data also show that several regions that exceed the recommended wet-bulb temperature values are concentrated in South Asia. The human body can lose heat up to a wet-bulb temperature of 35 degrees centigrade, by which time it would have already faced severe health and productivity impacts.

Wet-bulb temperature is a strong indicator of heat stress – a high value indicates the human body’s reduced ability to undergo thermo-regulation through perspiration.

As South Asia is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change, the report calls for urgent efforts to mitigate its contribution to global warming as well as to ensure that it adapts and prepares for more frequent extreme weather events.

Geographical locations of the most extreme projected heat-waves in the Indus and Ganges River valleys coincide with high population density and agricultural intensity. Approximately 75 per cent of the population is expected to experience maximum wet-bulb temperatures exceeding 31 centigrade by 2100, considered dangerous levels for most humans.

In India, Pakistan, and Bang­ladesh, the largest South Asian countries based on population, land area, and GDP, the building sector has grown exponentially in response to their growing population. It is now a significant contributor to the world energy demand. The building sector in these countries is the most significant contributor to energy usage (India: 47 per cent; Pakistan: 55 per cent; and Bangladesh: 55 per cent).

According to the report, rapid urbanisation in South Asia has also increased the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Understanding outdoor thermal conditions is highly relevant because they serve as the basis for all indoor thermal phenomena.

Published in Dawn, June 14th, 2023