ASIA-PACIFIC has been the primary venue for the US-China strategic competition. However, the competition is now spilling into other regions too, including the Middle East, where the US is gradually losing its influence. In order to bolster its standing in the Middle East, the US facilitated the process of normalisation of ties between Israel and the Arabs. Initially called the Abraham Accords, the UAE was the first to normalise ties with Israel in August 2020, followed by Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. In the follow-up, a grouping that came to be known as the ‘Negev Forum’ was formed to promote economic cooperation amongst Arab states that had normalised ties with Israel.

Encouraged by the Abraham Accords, the US facilitated the formation of a forum for economic cooperation among India, Israel, the UAE and US. Called the I2U2, the foreign ministers of the grouping first met in October 2021. The forum is also referred to as the West Asian Quad, the western counterpart of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue where the US, India, Australia and Japan are weaving a kind of containment arc against China.

The I2U2’s stated aim is to promote economic cooperation among its four members. Political or ideological issues are not included in the agenda. Described as ‘economic pragmatism’, the Palestine issue has been relegated to the back-burner. Geoeconomics has overtaken geopolitics. But, behind its overtly economic agenda, lies an attempt by the US to revitalise its partnerships in the Middle East, especially in technology, trade, climate, pandemics and security.

There has been talk of broadening the I2U2 to include S2 (Saudi Arabia and South Korea). However, Saudi Arabia has yet to take a decision on this. It is recalled that after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and the ensuing sanctions imposed by the US and Europe on Russia, a serious energy crisis erupted. The US tried to persuade Saudi Arabia to lower its oil production to stabilise oil prices; however, Saudi Arabia decided to protect its own interests. Saudi Arabia, feeling unsure of US security guarantees after its failure in Afghanistan and Iraq, seems to be diversifying its options.

Smaller multilateral groupings are focusing on economics.

All this while, China has maintained its economic outreach, including with the Middle Eastern countries. It has deepened its ties with Iran and Saudi Arabia, and in a move that surprised everyone, has brokered a rapprochement between them. Meanwhile, Russia, impacted gravely by the sanctions, has also started leaning on China and become a kind of partner of Beijing in its strategic competition with the US. Russia also engaged with India and some other countries to sell its oil.

India has so far played all sides, citing strategic autonomy. However, India is increasingly finding itself in a tight spot. This was illustrated in a recent summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, chaired by India. Given the recent high-profile state visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the US, India was awkwardly placed to invite President Vladimir Putin to the in-person summit. India also did not sign onto the para referring to China’s Belt and Road Initiative in the joint statement. The Goa experience probably weighed in on the decision vis-à-vis the invitation to Pakistan’s prime minister. India’s escape route was to go for a virtual summit even at the cost of diluting its commitment to the SCO.

In the I2U2 also, India is walking a thin line given the regional political and ideological dynamics. To avert polemics, the I2U2 countries seem to be focusing on the economic agenda. For instance, in the virtual summit meeting held by I2U2 countries in July 2022, discussions were focused on food security and clean energy.

In terms of concrete outcomes of the I2U2 summit, the UAE offered to invest $2 billion to develop integrated food parks across India, incorporating climate-smart technologies to reduce food waste and conserve freshwater. India would provide the land and facilitate farmers’ integration into the food parks. The US and Israeli private sectors would provide expertise. In another major decision, the I2U2 countries would cooperate in generating 300 megawatts of wind and solar power in India’s Gujarat state, with a complementary battery energy storage system. India wanted to use this project to become a global hub for alternative supply chains in renewable energy.

Mini-lateral groupings, such as I2U2, are filling space that once belonged to relatively larger multilateral organisations, and are diverting their focus from politics to economics. There are lessons for Pakistan. Geoeconomics is the pathway to economic security and political clout. Given the developments in the Gulf, Pakistan must expedite north-south connectivity and prioritise setting right its economic house.

The writer is a former foreign secretary.

Published in Dawn, July 9th, 2023