THE recent discussions surrounding the idea of blocking out the sun as a step to combat climate change have garnered attention from influential figures. For instance, the American government, in a 44-page report available on the White House website, has mentioned the concept of sun blocking to mitigate the effects of climate change. Even otherwise, the Biden administration has acknowledged that it is open to the idea as a possible solution to address the escalating issue of global warming.

Additionally, billionaires Bill Gates and George Soros are financially supporting Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) technology and other such developments of the targeted sun-dimming technology that could reflect sunlight out of Earth’s atmosphere, potentially leading to a global cooling effect.

Although the notion of sun blocking is not new, it is essential to consider the potential consequences of such actions. Prof Gary Rendsburg, a biblical historian specialising in ancient history, has drawn attention to the plagues during the time of the Pharaohs in ancient Egypt. One such plague was darkness and the blotting out of the sun, resulting in death and destruction.

Presently, there is a lack of a coherent global strategy based on collective consultation to effectively tackle climate change. As the world becomes increasingly fragmented, with old and new powers vying for economic and geopolitical dominance, the challenges associated with climate change will intensify, particularly as we enter a new era of a multipolar world with the rise of China.

Climate change is an issue that will affect us all, especially in countries like Pakistan, in ways that are difficult to predict or model mathematically. The decisions made by the powers that be will have far-reaching and unpredictable impact on our lives.

To illustrate the point, we can look at the unintended consequences of actions taken during China’s Great Leap Forward in 1958 when the decision to eradicate sparrow birds due to its consumption of grains caused an upset in the ecological balance. The subsequent surge in locust and insect populations, due to the lack of a natural predator, led to crop destruction and played a significant role in the Great Chinese Famine of 1960. This famine caused an estimated 23 million to 30 million deaths in China. Although the consequences were localised within China, they do serve as a cautionary tale.

Considering historical examples, it becomes evident that blocking sunlight or engaging in any form of geoengineering to address global warming could lead to unintended consequences for the entire planet, including climate-sensitive and agricultural countries, like Pakistan.

The eruption of the Tambora volcano in 1815, for instance, ejected so much ash and aerosols into the atmosphere that the sky darkened and the sun was blocked from view. This resulted in a year without a summer, food shortages, and widespread hardship in Europe and parts of North America. This eruption was big enough to alter global climate patterns, causing years of famine.

If powerful nations or wealthy individuals were to independently pursue sun blocking measures, inadvertently causing multiple harvest failures in, say, Pakistan, the consequences would be catastrophic. Famine, disease and unprecedented instability would ensue on a scale never witnessed before. Given that Pakistan in recent times has become a net food importer, a major crop failure due to climate change or man-made solutions to address this impending crisis would have serious implications.

It is crucial to approach climate change and its solutions with a global perspective, emphasising collaboration and consideration for the diverse range of impacts on different regions and countries. Unilateral actions, particularly those with potentially severe consequences, must be critically evaluated and assessed for their broader ramifications. In order to prevent any potential unintended consequences that could pose significant harm to Pakistan, it is crucial for the country to actively engage with individuals, nations and international forums at all levels, fostering meaningful dialogue and collaboration.

Adil Hanif
London

Published in Dawn, July 27th, 2023