• ‘Worst’ floods feared in Ravi, Sutlej
• Met Office predicts ‘vigorous’ three-day spell, warns of urban flooding

PESHAWAR / QUETTA / LAHORE: At least 10 people were killed in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on Thursday as monsoon rains wreaked havoc, triggering flash floods in hilly areas, inundating urban localities, and destroying mud houses across the country.

Meanwhile, the Pakistan Meteorological Department issued a red alert for the next three days, saying that a “vigorous monsoon activity” was likely in upper and central parts of the country till July 30, which would lead to flooding and landslides.

Similarly, authorities braced for the ‘worst’ floods in Ravi and Sutlej since 1998 after the catchment areas in India received incessant rainfall during the ongoing monsoon season, filling three dams on these rivers much earlier than expected.

Five dead in KP

In Mansehra, a woman and her three children were killed in a house collapse while a landslide in Mardan killed a labourer and injured two others.

Khatoon Baidar, her sons Abdul Sattar, 5, Abdul Jabar, 9, and daughter Haleema Bibi, 2, were pronounced dead after they were moved to a hospital.

The heavy monsoon rain, which started last week, continued for the fifth consecutive day and caused further devastation in parts of Mansehra. The latest deaths have increased the death toll to 12.

In Mardan, a labourer was killed and two others sustained serious injuries when a landslide struck the site in the Sangao area of Katlang tehsil. Road links, bridges, and houses were also damaged due to rain in the Mansehra district.

In Lower Dir, traffic on the Timergara-Peshawar road and Kalpani-Talash bypass road remained blocked for more than eight hours owing to floods. In Abbottabad, rainwater entered the Ayub Medical Complex and surrounding areas.

It also entered the wards of the Ayub Medical Complex, especially the neurosurgery, emergency and cardiac wards, forcing staff and relatives to shift their patients to safer places.

Five killed in Balochistan

In Balochistan, five more people were killed as a result of torrential rainfall, which also triggered flash floods in Panjgur. The non-stop spell threatened dams in Panjgur, which were filled to their capacity.

The Hub dam which had the capacity of storing 339 feet of water was up to the brim and there was no space left to receive more water. A Wapda official said the residents living close to the river were asked to move to safer places in light of flooding in the Hub River.

Officials said a large number of mud houses collapsed in Panjgur, Kalat, Khuzdar, Nasirabad, Kachhi, Awaran, Hub, Lasbela, Sibi and Jhal Magsi and many other areas, rendering thousands of people homeless. Three days of rain in Panjgur caused heavy floods which entered many villages and destroyed hundreds of houses.

“All dams in different areas of Panjgur were filled and spillways were opened,” the Panjgur deputy commissioner said, adding that the spillway of the Nivan dam was destroyed due to high water pressure. The situation in Hub and Lasbela was also becoming serious due to heavy rains. Moreover, the traffic link between Quetta and Sibi could not be restored.

‘Worst’ floods expected

In light of potential floods in Sutlej and Ravi, the federal and Punjab governments and other authorities were asked to ensure an effective mitigation plan to save people and infrastructure, Dawn has learnt.

“We are passing through a very serious period due to the pattern of recent rainfalls and the unexpected filling of three Indian dams. We have shared all information with the government, security institutions and other concerned [departments], telling them the situation is posing a serious threat to Punjab in case further filling of India dams continues due to incessant rains in the catchment areas,” an Irrigation Department official told Dawn on Thursday.

He said Thein Dam on Ravi, Bhakra and Pong dams on Sutlet were 86.99pc, 73.74pc and 78.15pc full, respectively, as informed by India. According to him, Thein Dam usually “attains 32pc, 56pc and 62pc filling in January, August and October, respectively, followed by Bhakra that gets 50pc, 66pc and 71pc storage in the aforementioned months”.

“Since the monsoon attains its peak in August, we are of the view that these dams will attain their optimum storage in the near future, leaving the Indian authorities with no option but to open spillways and start making discharges downstream of Ravi and Sutlej. In such a scenario, the situation is likely to be very dangerous, worse than the 1988 floods,” the official warned.

“In the last 18 days, 600mm [of] rain was recorded in the catchment areas of these dams,” the official said, adding that during the 1988 floods, the Bhakra and Pong dams had attained full storage in September. Likewise, Thein Dam achieved full storage in the same month,“ the official said, adding that the rain pattern in the last 18 days and September 1988 was similar.“

The authorities have been told that if the “Shahdara breaching section is operated at critical gauge of 699 feet, the Ravi water will follow the natural paths of Bhed Nullah to fall in the Ravi again”.

The breach may lead to the flooding of GT Road in Gujranwala and Sheikhupura since the culverts on these roads are closed and need to be opened.

The floodwater may pass through the M-2 motorway where the NHA has provided cross drainage structures requiring its safe passage since these were never tested for passing of flood. The flood may also reach the M-3 motorway (Lahore-Abdul Hakim/Khanewal) where no proper cross-drainage structure for the passage of floodwater exists.

However, the water may follow different road crossings.

Separately, in Rawalpindi, heavy rains are predicted in the catchment area of Leh Nullah during the Ashura holidays due to which there is a risk of flooding in Leh Nullah so all concerned should be on red alert and prepared for emergency measures.

Caretaker Minister Dr Jamal Nasir said there will be disruption in mobile signals due to Ashura due to which the GSM system of Leh Nullah monitoring may also be affected, because of which the manual system of the monitoring will also be activated.

Aamir Yasin in Rawalpindi also contributed to this report

Published in Dawn, July 28th, 2023