The Right Bank Master Plan (RBMP) to deal with flood management issues — mainly in Sindh on the Indus River’s right bank — is being discussed at the federal level under the Federal Flood Commission (FFC) umbrella. The RBMP would manage floodwaters from Koh-i-Suleman, Kirthar mountain range, and other hilly terrain streams.

A Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) official says the provinces (Sindh, Balochistan, and Punjab), which are also the current stakeholders along with Wapda, have either submitted or are in the process of presenting papers to the FFC regarding the plan — they plan on making their interventions at a local level.

Floods have wreaked havoc in the right bank areas of Sindh and Balochistan, as experienced in 2022. Over a decade ago, the 2010 super floods caused similar, colossal economic losses as well as infrastructural damages worth billions of rupees.

The RBMP has been a focal point of discussions at the Federal Ministry of Water Resources, where the inflicted provinces and Wapda shared their viewpoints. In the last meeting held on this matter in Islamabad on July 7, it was decided that concept papers would be submitted for the FFC to review by July 25.

The Sindh government is executing RBOD-II, and its cost has been revised twice over the last 20 years while the project remains incomplete despite successive cost overruns

In a similar meeting during February 2023 held in Karachi, it was decided to conduct a joint survey of the damages to Right Bank Outfall Drain-I and III caused by hill torrents, rain and flooding over the years in general and 2022 in particular. According to the survey report, a cost of Rs5.67 billion was assessed to repair infrastructural damage during the 2022 floods.

Currently, the FFC is tasked by the federal government to coordinate and collaborate with stakeholders, probably because of the perennial discord between Wapda and Sindh. Sindh has had issues of trust with Wapda for a long time, given mega projects like RBOD and the Left Bank Outfall Drain and their subsequent fallouts. Therefore, the FFC is in the saddle now.

A senior Wapda officer conceded that the RBMP was essential as hill torrents and floods in upper Sindh are a regular phenomenon. “Upper Sindh regions need an early warning and gauging system to know the actual quantum of floodwater that is likely to hit an area,” he said.

A floods management plan with pre-emptive measures, like the building of dams (cascading, retention and storage), groundwater recharge systems, and the restoration of natural and historic flood routes using provisions for proper drainage in road networks constructed along these flood routes, is crucial.

The Sindh government has claimed the cost of damages for rehabilitation works should be incurred by Wapda for rehabilitation carried out by the irrigation department on infrastructure under Wapda’s control since these works are being carried out with funds meant for the Sindh Flood Emergency Rehabilitation Project (SFERP). These damages were the result of super floods in 2010 and 2022.

Officials stated that the Project Cost-I for Rs5.67bn has been prepared and presented to the federal government’s Planning Commission for approval. The paper also mentions the cost relating to RBOD-I and RBOD-III.

The paper also refers to structures, including roads, bridges, watercourse crossings, and drainage inlets, that were damaged in floods in 2022 and needed reconstruction to restore the drainage system.

It alluded to reconstruction work under SFERP on the Johi Branch canal aqueduct (in Dadu), Manchhar Lake’s embankment breaches, Indus River embankment damaged due to breaches in MNVD and Indus Link (which connects RBOD-I with under-construction RBOD-II) and other damages to infrastructures due to RBOD-I & III in Qambar, Shahdadkot, Mehar, Khairpur Nathan Shah.

Wapda, on its part, was said to have submitted its paper to the federal government for flood management, suggesting a 400km long channel having a capacity of around 25,000 cusecs beginning from Balochistan and ending in Hamal Lake to which Sindh had disagreed on technical grounds. Later, Wapda removed this suggestion.

“It was simply not possible to have a channel of such capacity. Given the quantum of floods and torrents, it simply can’t work. Rather it will trigger more flooding if floodwater is channelised,” argued Zarif Khero, Sindh irrigation secretary.

Similarly, he explained, RBOD has played havoc with Manchhar Lake and Indus River’s freshwater resources due to highly toxic effluent draining into the waters. “Even if RBOD-II is built, why is effluent disposed of in the Sindh seafront (Gharo Creek)? A plan should be made to address the treatment of effluent that enters this drain, and the federal government should bear the recurring cost of the drain’s maintenance because it brings effluent from other provinces to Sindh,” he continued.

In last year’s flooding, damages were reported in RBOD’s system, I, II and III components in Sindh. RBOD-I and II systems exist in Sindh, while part of RBOD-III lies in Balochistan. Wapda had built RBOD-I and RBOD-III. In the early 90s, RBOD-I was built over a freshwater source west of the Indus River. Due to unending contamination, it became a toxic water drain called Main Nara Valley Drain and destroyed Manchhar Lake.

To save the lake’s biodiversity, Wapda designed another 273 km long RBOD-II in General Pervez Musharraf’s era at a cost of Rs14bn to carry 2,271 cusecs of effluent to sea. But, its capacity had to be enhanced to carry effluent from the Nasirabad and Jaffarabad districts of Balochistan, so the RBOD-III was added. RBOD-II’s capacity has now risen from 2,271 to 3,525 cusecs, and so has the project’s cost.

The Sindh government is executing RBOD-II, and its cost has been revised twice over the last 20 years while the project remains incomplete despite successive cost overruns.

The first cost revision was made in 2006 when it was increased from Rs14bn to Rs29.2bn until a second revision pushed it to over Rs64bn. According to General Manager South Wapda, Masood Soomro, Balochistan’s component of RBOD-III has been handed over to Balochistan in 2021 by Wapda, but RBOD-I and Sindh’s component of RBOD-III are yet to be handed over to Sindh.

On the other hand, Sindh is not ready to take over these drains unless RBOD-II’s core issues are addressed. The provincial government has now planned a feasibility study over RBOD-II, for which it has called requests for proposals. Around Rs21bn was available to Sindh from the second cost revision expenditures, according to an officer.

The irrigation department believed that RBOD-II’s alignment needed to be re-evaluated. In its concept paper, the department explained that the RBOD-II runs entirely within the active Indus River course, so there is strong apprehension that it might not be manageable during super floods.

Extreme events due to increasing climate change are becoming frequent and intense. The Sindh government launched the feasibility study for which terms of reference have been prepared. It includes revising of existing alignment (of RBOD-II) as well as its sustainability in light of rising climate change patterns and challenges.

The Sindh government perhaps owes an explanation as to why successive costs revisions of RBOD-II were approved in the last 15 years and why, after spending billions of rupees from the national treasury, it has just dawned upon the irrigation department that RBOD-II needs drains realignment.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, July 31st, 2023