The Water Apportionment Accord of 1991 is a significant agreement that outlines the allocation of water resources among the four provinces of Pakistan. This accord established a formula to divide water resources equitably among the provinces. According to the accord, Punjab is allocated 48.92 per cent, Sindh 42.64pc, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 5.05pc, and Balochistan 3.38pc of the total water resources.

Additionally, the agreement stipulates that a minimum flow of 10 million acre-feet (MAF) of water should be maintained at the Kotri Barrage annually to prevent seawater intrusion in the Indus Delta and to support the region’s natural vegetation and local communities.

One of the prominent consequences of an early monsoon season is an elevated risk of flooding. Moreover, the timing of agricultural activities, such as planting and harvesting, is also influenced by the altered monsoon schedule, carrying economic ramifications for farmers and the broader economy.

Premature monsoons can significantly exacerbate floods, leading to considerable damage to infrastructure, property, and agricultural yields. This climatic shift can also result in the displacement of people and loss of life. It is important to note that the drainage infrastructure in Sindh is insufficient to manage the sudden influx of water during the monsoon season. Consequently, this inadequacy is expected to worsen issues such as waterlogging and stagnant water in the province.

The 1991 Water Apportionment Accord needs to be updated in accordance with climate change

Furthermore, the shift in the monsoon season’s timing introduces the potential for water scarcity in the latter part of the year. While heavy rainfall can trigger flooding, it does not guarantee consistent long-term water availability.

If the monsoon rains cease prematurely or if there is insufficient rainfall in subsequent months, drought conditions and water scarcity may arise. The effects of an early monsoon season on Sindh’s crops are intricate and hinge on several factors. While Kharif crops can benefit from the abundant moisture, Rabi crops might be negatively impacted due to delayed planting schedules and diminished yields.

To mitigate the impact of early monsoons on floods and water drainage, the government of Sindh can take several measures. One such measure is to improve the drainage system by cleaning the canals and irrigation channels and ensuring they are free from obstructions. The government can also invest in constructing new drainage channels to divert excess water to the sea.

Some freshwater lakes in Sindh include Keenjhar Lake, Haleji Lake, and Manchar Lake. These lakes are fed by rainfall and water from the Indus River. During the monsoon season, the water levels in these lakes increase, and they can potentially be used for agricultural and domestic purposes. Freshwater lakes have the potential to play a crucial role in storing floodwater and promoting sustainable agriculture in the region.

Storing floodwater in the lakes requires managing the amount of water coming from the Indus River when it’s raining heavily and flooding. This can be done by constructing spillways and channels that guide extra water into the lake. It’s also important to make sure the sides of the lake are strong and secure.

Additionally, removing the mud and debris from the lake through dredging might help the lake hold even more water. The effectiveness of this plan depends on a few things, like how much water is already in the lake, how much it’s raining, and how much water is coming from the Indus River.

Nevertheless, the revitalisation and enhancement of these reservoirs, coupled with the necessary modifications to the current irrigation infrastructure, necessitate substantial investments, which the Sindh government cannot initiate alone.

In addition to this, it is important to note that the water quality of these lakes may not be suitable for all uses. For example, Manchar Lake was once the largest freshwater lake in Pakistan, but pollution, waterlogging, and salinisation have severely impacted its ecosystem and surrounding communities livelihoods. Therefore, any efforts to utilise these lakes for water supply should be accompanied by measures to ensure the water quality is safe for consumption and other uses.

When it comes to seawater intrusion, the early monsoon rains can help. They bring more freshwater to the coasts, pushing back the salty seawater and maintaining a good balance. But there’s a catch — we need enough water for this to work, which can be tough during dry spells or droughts. So, it’s really important to handle our water resources smartly and carefully to make sure we have enough water and to prevent seawater from causing problems in Sindh.

As a result, it’s becoming increasingly vital to revisit and modernise the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord. This is crucial in order to address the evolving challenges concerning water resources and the shifts in our country’s climate conditions. The updated agreement should take into consideration new and emerging issues related to water management, including the growing scarcity of water, more frequent occurrences of droughts and floods, and changes in water availability due to factors like early monsoons and other climate-related concerns.

Furthermore, the updated accord could also tackle the need to improve the nation’s water infrastructure and enhance the capabilities of relevant institutions for effective water resource management.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, August 21st, 2023