HYDERABAD: Guddu Barrage remained in low flood till 6pm on Sunday but is likely to attain medium flood status by Tuesday (Aug 29) evening, according to the Sindh irrigation department.

The Indus River System Authority (Irsa) spokesman attributed the trend to rising temperature in the river’s catchment area.

Irrigation officials expect arrival of flows from Sutlaj after a couple of days to cause medium flood at Guddu. Last week’s figures show that the temperatures in Skardu invariably remained between 20 and 30 degrees Celsius causing melting of snow on mountains and ultimately generating heavy flows. On Aug 19, the mercury had risen to 33.9 degrees Celsius and the temperatures remained the same till Aug 23. It dropped to 28.3 degrees Celsius only on Aug 25.

“I guess flows in Indus will vary between 225,000 and 300,000 cusecs at Guddu [barrage] in the days to come due to water flows generated by rising temperature in Skardu,” said Irsa spokesman Khalid Idris Rana. He believed that flows coming from eastern rivers would also add to Indus water subsequently.

Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma had attained rare optimum storage capacity last Sunday

“Before eastern rivers’ discharges (from India) add to Indus via Sutlej river, Indus flows will pass safely which means flows from Sutlej will precede Indus river flows at Sindh’s barrages,” he said.

The eastern rivers’ flows, after crossing Islam barrage, reach Panjnad in Punjab to head for Sindh barrages by entering Indus.

Saturday’s discharge table of 6pm showed that Chashma barrage – located at Guddu upstream -– had recorded a flow of 317,974 cusecs downstream on which was 286,731 cusecs at 6am the same day.

Flows at Chashma dropped again at 6am on Sunday, showing a flow of 293,562 cusecs downstream and then 235,042 cusecs at 6pm. Chashma water flows head for Taunsa Barrage and Chachran headworks before reaching Guddu Barrage.

Guddu Barrage recorded 248,565 cusecs upstream and 217,029 cusecs downstream discharge at 6pm Sunday with the discharge at Sukkur Barrage upstream being recorded at 205,010 cusecs and downstream 151,500 cusecs. Sukkur barrage’s discharges remained normal with a withdrawal of 53,610 cusecs for its seven main canals.

With the addition of eastern rivers’ flows, Guddu Barrage would attain medium flood status on Aug 29 evening and the trend would continue for the 24 hours or so, according to Sukkur Barrage control room in-charge Abdul Aziz Soomro.

“We are watching the situation in the Indus zone where rainfall was forecast by the meteorological department for Aug 27 and Aug 28,” he said. In case of rainfall, the medium flood status could continue for more days from Aug 29 onwards, he added.

The Indus zone encompasses catchment of Kabul River, Tarbela upstream and Koh-i-Suleman range. That’s why only controlled quantum of water is being released from Tarbela to ensure a cushion keeping in view possible flows, likely to be generated by anticipated rainfall as has been forecast, according to Mr Soomro.

But Irsa spokesman said that it was normal variation in pond level of Tarbela Dam.

Storage in Tarbela was recorded at 1549.59 on Aug 20 at 6am against a maximum storage capacity of 1,550 but then Irsa started releasing flows gradually from dam and the level came down to 1,548.92 on Aug 24. Its storage level was 1,549.7 on Sunday morning.

Water was released from Mangla Dam as well. All three storages — Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma — had attained optimum storage capacity last Sunday, a rare thing.

Irsa had claimed on Aug 17 that in over half-a-decade history, Mangla, Tarbela and Chashma attained their maximum capacity on a single day putting total water storage at highest 13.443 million acre-feet (MAF).

Flows from Sutlej, Chenab, Jehlum and Ravi reach Panjnad barrage before heading for Indus river through Guddu Barrage and within a 24-hour time lag, the flows released downstream Guddu reach Sukkur Barrage upstream. Travel time between Sukkur downstream and Kotri Barrage, however, invariably remains six to seven days.

Published in Dawn, August 28th, 2023