PAKISTAN is getting deeper into a constitutional quagmire. The unending series of political manoeuvres over the past couple of years have caused much economic damage to the country while eroding public trust and confidence in a democratic and political dispensation.

The ramifications of the current constitutional and political crisis stretch beyond the judicial and democratic systems to affect macroeconomic stability.

The dissolution of the Punjab and KP assemblies earlier this year, as part of a strategic political move aimed at securing a PTI government during the upcoming elections to the National Assembly, precipitated a crisis that continues without respite.

This plan was thwarted by the coalition government by refusing to provide funds and administrative support to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to conduct by-elections within 90 days.

The Supreme Court’s decisions to hold by-elections in the provinces were flouted by the executive relying on the powers of parliament. Such a scenario, where the Supreme Court’s orders are disregarded by other organs of the state, signifies a collapse of both the judicial system and the polity.

Article 224 of the Constitution unequivocally states that elections for a legislature — dissolved before the completion of its five-year term — must be held within 90 days after its dissolution. The purpose of a caretaker government is to facilitate elections and run the day-to-day affairs of the government.

Accordingly, de facto extension in the term of the caretaker governments in Punjab and KP is against the spirit of the Constitution. Unfortunately, this precedent of extending terms could now be used to delay general elections beyond the stipulated 90 days and the caretaker federal government may also potentially perpetuate its term indefinitely, violating the constitutional norm.

The ECP’s decision to initiate fresh delimitation of constituencies, following the approval of the Council of Common Interests for the 2023 population census, is a declaration that general elections may not be held within the constitutional limit of 90 days.

The delimitation process typically takes a minimum of four months to complete and could extend considerably due to possible litigations by the affected candidates. Therefore, the ECP decision has exacerbated uncertainty. If the fate of the Supreme Court’s orders to hold by-elections in Punjab is any indicator, then general elections seem to be a distant dream.

We must not let politics complicate the implementation of the Stand-by Arrangement.

Timely elections as stipulated in Article 224 are imperative to mitigating the political tension and prevent impending constitutional, political, and economic crises before they become insurmountable.

Thanks to the IMF-supported Stand-By Arrangement, Pakistan has just averted an imminent sovereign default risk. While the SBA has helped the retreat of near-term vulnerabilities, it remains a short-term bridging arrangement, and the new government after the elections will need to engage with the IMF for an extended financing arrangement to meet crucial medium-term fiscal and external financing needs.

The SBA programme comprises two reviews scheduled for November 2023 and February 2024. The assumption behind this schedule was the installation of a new elected government by November 2023.

Now, if the caretaker governments hold on to power beyond their constitutional mandate without generally accepted legitimacy, one should not assume that the IMF will be completing the scheduled reviews and making available the two remaining tranches of about $1.8 billion.

The IMF’s reluctance to complete the ninth review under the extended Fund facility programme as scheduled due to the uncertain political situation is a recent example.

Although recent amendments to the Election Act 2017 allow the interim government to make significant policy decisions regarding multilateral and bilateral projects, they do not extend to the 90-day mandate.

The IMF had warned in its staff report that the risks to SBA implementation are exceptionally high. Amplified by the tense political environment, powerful vested interests will continue to weigh in on economic policy decisions, which could undermine SBA implementation, jeopardising macroeconomic and external stability and the already stretched debt sustainability.

External financing risks are exceptionally high and delays in the disbursement of planned external financing from international financial institutions and bilateral creditors pose major risks to a very fragile external balance given the extremely limited buffers.

Furthermore, high food and energy prices will continue to fuel sociopolitical tensions. Therefore, we must not let politics complicate SBA implementation as we no longer have the luxury of playing around with the IMF programme.

It may be recalled that prior to SBA approval, IMF staff had met the representatives of Pakistan’s major political parties — the PML-N, PPP, and PTI — and all these parties expressed written support for the SBA’s key objectives and policies ahead of the approaching national elections.

While requesting a nine-month SBA, the Pakistani authorities had also communicated to the Fund that a new short-term financing arrangement was needed until national elections were held and the installment of a newly elected government, empowered with a strong mandate to take medium-term decisions, took place later in the year.

The route to achieving economic prosperity and the well-being of citizens traverses strong democratic traditions and institutions. Our Constitution has clearly defined the boundaries of the polity, which must be honoured.

Manipulating the document out of reasons of political expediency will lead us nowhere. Instead, our direction should be guided by the Constitution itself, rather than being influenced by vested interests.

Failing to do so will inevitably steer us towards the abyss of political and economic turmoil. In our journey towards establishing a strong and progressive democratic state, we must follow the constitutional path.

When such direction is lost, the best action is to retrace our steps and proceed to the route that leads to our mapped destiny.

The writer is a former senior adviser of the IMF and holds a PhD in economics from the University of Cambridge.

dr.saeedahmed1@hotmail.com

Published in Dawn, August 28th, 2023