Pakistan vs India, October 14, 2023. A packed 132,000-seat Narendra Modi Stadium in a feverish atmosphere in the volatile city of Ahmedabad. The thought itself is chilling! But most Pakistan fans will have only one question on their minds: can it be eighth time lucky for Pakistan?

Can Pakistan beat India in a 50-over World Cup match after losing seven times since their first World Cup meet in 1992? Pakistan has a better overall One-Day International record against India, 73 wins to 56 losses. But when it comes to the World Cups (50 and 20 overs), Pakistan have just one win to show — the 10-wicket shocking win in Dubai in the 2021 Twenty20 World Cup.

On the other hand, they have lost six Twenty20 World Cup clashes.

Is it a jinx or does Pakistan fail to handle the pressure of a highly charged match? Even the great Wasim Akram is not sure. “When I look back and analyse, it’s very hard for me to pinpoint what is the reason,” Wasim once told me. “Maybe, Indian teams over the years handled the pressure better than us.”

The ICC World Cup match between archrivals Pakistan and India is set for October 14. Can Pakistan challenge fate after losing to its neighbour in the previous seven outings?

After beating Pakistan for a sixth time in a 50-over World Cup match, at Adelaide in 2015, the then Indian captain very wisely admitted: “This World Cup record is good and we are proud of it, but a time will come when we will lose to them. This record won’t stay for the rest of our lives.”

While most of the time, Pakistan were the favourites to win, the Ahmedabad clash comes at a time when India are on a roll. They beat Pakistan by a record 228-run margin in the Asia Cup last month and then won the continental title with consummate ease. They then beat Australia 2-1 in the home ODI series and look like a red-hot unit.

Under Rohit Sharma, the Indian team have all their bases covered, with strong batting, quality spin bowling to come good on slow and turning wickets, and fierce fast bowling, with spearhead Jasprit Bumrah back in the fold, reinvigorated.

Pakistan looks short on strength, shaken after a shoulder injury to key bowler Naseem Shah, which has separated the Shaheen-Naseem-Rauf trio. The trio was touted as the match-winning combination of fast bowlers. In fact, the Pakistan Cricket Board failed to prepare the team for the mega event. Inconsistent selection and not managing the workload of the fast bowlers have hurt the team no end. Naseem’s injury is a result of that lack of planning.

So, India will start as the hot favourites at Ahmedabad. But teams have and can upset the charts through their planning and aggression. Babar Azam, who cruelly lacks these attributes, needs to pull up his socks to change these assessments.

Coming back to Pakistan’s lack of wins in World Cups, it’s a weak point that has been mocked across the border.

India’s winning streak in 50 overs was matched in the Twenty20 World Cup, with India clinching the bowl-out contest after the group clash ended in a tie in 2007 in South Africa. Misbah-ul-Haq brought Pakistan to the brink of victory with just 13 needed off the final over. Misbah scored seven off the first two deliveries (wide, dot and a six) but with six needed off the last four balls his scoop was caught in the deep and India clinched the cup.

That was followed with lopsided defeats in the 2012, 2014 and 2016 Twenty20 World Cups, before fortunes changed. On the back of brilliant bowling by spearhead Shaheen Shah Afridi and then smart batting by Babar and Mohammad Rizwan, the T20 jinx was broken in Dubai in 2021. But the 50-over voodoo is still intact.

If we look back at how World Cup contests have gone, the key point is the inability to handle the pressure on the day of the match.

1992 World Cup: March 4 1992, Sydney. Pakistan lose by 43 runs

The Pakistan team were on a losing streak and nothing was going their way. The Indian team had been in Australia longer, so were better acclimatised. Batting first, India managed 216-7 in 49 overs — a safe total in those days. Pakistan recovered after losing early wickets, but an act of madness by Javed Miandad distracted him and, when he lost his wicket, Pakistan’s innings fell through.

1996 World Cup: March 9, 1996, Bangalore. Pakistan lose by 39 runs

It was a big occasion, as Pakistan was in India’s den. Pakistan started the match on a controversial note, as their skipper Wasim Akram pulled out of the match with a suspected (reported as suspicious) shoulder injury, hours before the match in Bangalore.

India knocked off a solid 287-8 with Ajay Jadeja going berserk in the final overs from Waqar Younis. Pakistan were aggressive right from the get-go, before an animated Amir Sohail act — reacting to Venkatesh Prasad’s challenge — made him lose his stumps and the innings derailed. Veteran Javed Miandad was a shadow of himself in what turned out to be his last international match.

1999 World Cup: June 8, 1999, Manchester. Pakistan lose by 47 runs

Pakistan may have been complacent, as they were carrying points from wins against Australia and New Zealand. The match was played in the wake of Pakistan’s controversial defeat to then minnows Bangladesh. India scored a below-par 227, and Pakistan made heavy weather of that total as Inzamam-ul-Haq made a snail-paced 93-ball 41, with just one boundary. Pacer Prasad took five wickets, as Pakistan folded on 180.

2003 World Cup: March 1, 2003, Centurion. Pakistan lose by 6 wickets

Pakistan needed to win this game to keep their hopes of a semi-final place alive. But despite a Saeed Anwar century, Pakistan managed only 273. With a much vaunted bowling attack, comprising Wasim Akram, Waqar Younis and Shoaib Akhtar, Pakistan were expected to defend the target, but Sachin Tendulkar put Akhtar into submission and dropped catches helped India come out as winners.

2011 World Cup: March 30, 2011, Mohali. Pakistan lose by 29 runs

The high-profile semi-final at Mohali was attended by the prime ministers of both the countries — Yusuf Raza Gilani and Manmohan Singh. This was the second time that a World Cup match between the fiercest rivals was being played in India.

India managed 260, with Sachin Tendulkar getting the proverbial nine-lives-of-a-cat, including a controversial leg-before reprieve by Hawk-Eye. Pakistan did start aggressively, but lost wickets at regular intervals to go down by 29 runs.

2015 World Cup: February 15, 2015, Adelaide. Pakistan lose by 76 runs

A jam-packed Adelaide ground with both Pakistani and India expats presented an electrifying atmosphere. India took full advantage of some wayward Pakistan bowling to pile up 300 with a masterly century from Virat Kohli. Pakistan had an unusual opener in Younis Khan, who went for six.

Skipper Misbah-ul-Haq tried valiantly during his 76, but Pakistan fell short by the same margin.

2019 World Cup: June 16, 2019, Old Trafford. Pakistan lose by 89 runs (DLS)

The pre-match hype was significant. The incumbent prime minister Imran Khan — Pakistan’s only World Cup-winning skipper — advised skipper Sarfaraz Ahmed to bat first.

Pakistan did the opposite of that and lost by a big margin after rain disturbed their chase. The Pakistan team were also sloppy in the field, as they gave two chances to Rohit Sharma. Sharma punished them with a big hundred.

The former skipper Inzamam explains the 7-0 scoreline mildly. “I think all seven matches were lost due to bad luck.”

The writer is a senior cricket analyst.
X: @hashmi_shahid

Published in Dawn, EOS, October 8th, 2023