With an alarming backdrop of a 170 per cent increase in carbon emissions over the past three decades and an increased climate flooding risk, Pakistan’s environmental canvas demands urgent attention. The price of neglect?

According to the World Bank, an astronomical 6pc of Pakistan’s GDP (Rs365 billion per year) is lost to environmental degradation annually. Over 7,200 glaciers in Northern Pakistan are expected to vanish by 2035. Pakistan may see an influx of two million climate migrants by 2050.

With this environmental urgency in context, our focus shifts to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) — a colossal bilateral initiative, part of China’s broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). CPEC aims to connect Gwadar port to China’s Xinjiang via highways, railways, and pipelines, sprawling across a 2,700 km stretch, potentially modernising Pakistan’s energy and transportation sectors.

Historically, its environmental record is less than flattering, yet its potential transformation can be Pakistan’s trump card against climate change.

When the curtains were raised on CPEC in 2015, it promised a new dawn for Pakistan’s energy and transportation infrastructure. However, the overshadowing of sustainability by aggressive development came at a substantial cost.

The initial choice of coal-powered energy projects, in particular, posed grave concerns. The vast coal reserves in the Thar Desert, despite their allure, have showcased that they might not be the answer to Pakistan’s energy conundrum.

China and Pakistan must jointly craft a robust green investment roadmap, addressing the Corridor’s socio-environmental risks head-on

Disturbingly, the use of coal, especially from the Thar region, is anticipated to add a staggering 51 million tonnes to the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions. Further compounding the environmental quandary, CPEC’s massive transportation overhauls will likely result in an explosion in the number of Heavy-duty trucks (HDTs) that currently operate without emissions standards controls, projecting a troubling addition of 36.5m tonnes of CO2.

The World Resources Institute’s Climate Analysis Indicator Tool and Pak-INDC [Intended Nationally Determined Contribution] Report-2016 projected Pakistan’s 2030 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory to be at 1,603 metric tonnes of CO2-equivalent, with CPEC contributing a significant 370.72 MT CO2-equivalent. This value is approximately 23.12pc of the total projected GHG emissions for that year.

But the damage isn’t restricted to emissions alone. The full extent of coal’s ramifications — water and air pollution, ecosystem damage, health implications, and significant socio-economic costs — is an ominous cloud over Pakistan’s future. Couple this with the removal of natural habitats and the concerns surrounding land and water rights, and the Corridor’s environmental balancing act seems even more precarious.

Despite the bleak picture painted thus far, there are glimmers of hope on the horizon, hinting at a greener CPEC. On the domestic front, Pakistan’s renewed commitment to sustainability, led by a moratorium on new coal-based projects, is a commendable stride.

The ambitious Alternative and Renewable Energy Policy 2019, aiming for 30pc of the national energy from renewables and 30pc from hydro projects by 2030, marks a pivotal shift. The “Clean and Green Pakistan” agenda, supplemented by initiatives like the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami, underscores Pakistan’s resolution to redirect its environmental trajectory.

On the international side, China, understanding the criticisms surrounding BRI’s environmental stance, has showcased a strategic pivot towards greener policies, evidenced by its Five-Year Plan from 2020. Consequently, the share of fossil fuel financing (coal, gas, and oil) has been decreasing in CPEC, while climate finance toward renewable energies, particularly hydropower, has been increasing with a total capacity of over 3,600MW.

The green evolution of CPEC is crucial for both nations, reflecting their collective commitment to sustainability and painting an optimistic picture for the Corridor’s future.

In a recent Climate Talk interview with Climate Finance Pakistan, Mustafa Hyder, the Executive Director of Pakistan-China Institute (PCI), delved into the development of green architecture, low-carbon energy projects and environmental feasibility studies being conducted as a part of the Green CPEC Initiative.

“The largest in-kind investments and mega projects for Pakistan are coming from China. Since we are the 8th most climate vulnerable country, these new projects will be low-carbon and sustainable,” Mr Hyder remarked. Not only this, but also, with China’s expertise as the world’s largest producer of solar and wind power, Pakistan’s labour force stands to benefit immensely from skills and technical training initiatives to help deploy renewable energy at scale.

While aspirations are plentiful, the practical challenges of realising a Green CPEC remain. China and Pakistan must jointly craft a robust green investment roadmap, addressing CPEC’s socio-environmental risks head-on. China’s financial institutions, in sync with its policy-makers, must adopt a leadership role aligned with global energy governance standards.

Similarly, for Pakistan, a pivotal step would be the reinforcement of its Alternative and Renewable Energy policy, supported by the introduction of green transport policies, natural capital accounting, and sustainable infrastructures. As Special Economic Zones (SEZs) under CPEC gain momentum, the blueprint for low-carbon SEZs and eco-policies should be foundational.

Furthermore, workshops and events like the “Green China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Alliance” Workshop conducted last year in collaboration with the Sustainable Policy Development Institute (SDPI) and Pakistan-China Institute shed light on the symbiotic relationship between CPEC and green development.

The writer is an Associate at Climate Finance Pakistan and an Economics graduate of the Lahore University of Management Sciences.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, October 9th, 2023