AS climate activists around the world step up their protests over the way the developed world is ignoring environmental and climate-related red flags, startling new scientific data suggests that the climate crisis – forecast to reach its zenith around the year 2050 – may have been brought forward by no less than a decade.

In addition, fresh data from climate think tank Ember estimates that the global electricity sector’s carbon emissions are projected to potentially reach their peak this year, while another study has put the damage caused by the climate crisis through extreme weather to be around $16 million per hour over the past 20 years.

The findings by Nature Geoscience examine five different scenarios which includes very high emissions, high emissions, medium emission, low and very low emissions scenarios, and in each of them, the world is projected to experience a warming of at least 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels.

In addition Ember’s Global Electricity Review 2023 underscores the rapid growth of renewable energy, approaching the necessary pace to triple capacity by the decade’s end, aligning with the critical 1.5°C pathway for addressing climate change. Notably, the report highlights a minimal increase in emissions in the first half of this year compared to the previous year.

2050 crisis threshold may be ‘brought forward by a decade’; new study estimates cost of extreme weather events around $16 million per hour over 20 years

The data from the climate think-tank covers 78 countries that represent around 92 per cent of the world’s electricity demand, and focuses on the January-June period of the current year.

However, consensus among both studies is that achieving the most optimistic scenario, wherein carbon dioxide emissions reach net zero around 2050, is crucial for Earth to eventually return to a temperature below the critical threshold. Given the prevailing extreme temperatures of 40 to 50 ºC, this goal may appear challenging but remains essential for mitigating climate impacts.

The reports’ shared conclusion is that ongoing extreme events are steadily pushing ecosystems towards critical ‘tipping points,’ leading to irreversible changes. For instance, two degrees temperature rise could endanger up to 18pc of land species, escalating to 50pc at four degrees.

This also highlights that ecosystems in the Arctic, mountainous regions, and coastal areas that are highly susceptible are facing the highest risk from these transformations. Ice and glacier melt which is happening at an accelerated rate already will play a part in a major rise of sea level which would be irreversible for centuries.

“Additionally, ecosystems such as forests, peatlands, and permafrost, which naturally store greenhouse gases, are in danger of being driven into a state where they release these gases into the atmosphere, further exacerbating global warming,” the findings explain.

Cost of extreme weather

According to a Guardian report, the study by researchers from the Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand is the first to calculate a global figure for the increased costs directly attributable to human-caused global heating.

It found average costs of $140bn a year from 2000 to 2019, although the figure varies significantly from year to year. The latest data shows $280bn in costs in 2022. The researchers said lack of data, particularly in low-income countries, meant the figures were likely to be seriously underestimated. Additional climate costs, such as from crop yield declines and sea level rise, were also not included.

The researchers said their methods could be used to calculate how much funding was needed for a loss and damage fund established at the UN’s climate summit in 2022, which is intended to pay for the recovery from extreme weather disasters in poorer countries. It could also rapidly determine the specific climate cost of individual disasters, enabling faster delivery of funds.

“The headline number is $140bn a year and, first of all, that’s already a big number,” said Prof Ilan Noy, who carried out the study with colleague Rebecca Newman.

However, he noted that this could be a significant understatement because there were a lot of extreme weather events for which there was no data on numbers of people killed or economic damage.

Limited ways to adapt

Adaptation involves discovering methods to coexist with these changes, but the findings of these two reports warn that the world is running out of ways to adopt.

Scientists acknowledge that certain efforts have somewhat lessened the consequences of the climate crisis up to this point, but stress that these are insufficient in the longer run. Moreover, the ability of humans to adapt will be increasingly restricted if the temperature reaches 1.5ºC.

“The widespread temperatures ranging from 40 to 50 degrees Celsius, along with extreme daily temperature fluctuations and high humidity levels, would ultimately lead to our demise. Humans, as well as many other species, would perish because they wouldn’t be able to cool their bodies by sweating. Plus, the increased heat would create an environment without food or water sources for mammals,” the report in Nature Geoscience revealed.

The report briefly explained that with the accelerating climate crisis, which has caused several physical diseases like dehydration, cardiac arrests, liver problems and mental disorders like anxiety, depression, mood diseases, there is no way mammals can survive on earth in near future.

“It’s crucial not to forget that the current climate crisis is a consequence of human greenhouse gas emissions. While we foresee an unlivable planet in 250 million years, we’re already facing harmful extreme heat today, impacting human well-being. That’s why it’s essential to achieve net-zero emissions as quickly as we can,” the report stated.

Published in Dawn, October 10th, 2023