ISLAMABAD: Widespread over and under-registration of voters across the country is likely to cause massive disenfranchisement of men and women, as well as leaving exceptionally high room for rigging and corrupt practices in forthcoming general elections, said a coalition of civil society groups.

Pattan-Coalition 38 – an umbrella organisation of several civil society organisations, labour unions, and intellectuals – in its findings on Thursday said the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and Nadra could not register all eligible persons as voters in 102 of 134 districts of the country, while in 17 districts the number of voters exceeded eligible persons.

A province-wise analysis further revealed the gravity of these disturbing trends. “In Balochistan, about two-thirds eligible population is likely to have been excluded in 31 districts and almost all constituencies. In Punjab too, where excellent road networks exist low registration is discovered in half of its 40 districts, while in 12 districts it has over or exceptionally over registration.”

Interestingly, analysis of ECP’s voters’ data in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa also revealed that in 21 of 35 districts, a significant percentage of eligible people have been disenfranchised as in five of its districts, registration was found to be “low or very low”, and in 16 districts it was found low, while five districts were littered with over or exceptionally over-registration. “Sindh appears to be the only province, where over-registration didn’t appear to have taken place. However, under registration could be seen in 24 districts,” it added.

Pattan says 102 districts face under-registration, over-registration in 17 districts identified

‘18pc extra voters’

According to the research, a wild variance in registered voters at the district and constituency levels was also revealed. “For instance, 78% and 75% of population of Murree and Jhelum, respectively, were registered as voters. In other words on average about 18% extra (dubious) votes exist in these two districts.”

In Kohistan, the registration was as low as just 18%. Moreover, in eight districts of Balochistan i.e. Kech, Panjgur, Surab, Shirani, Washuk, Khuzdar, Kohlu etc. only about 25% of the population was registered as voters. “In other words, about 33% of eligible people…are likely to be excluded from the electoral roll. Both wild swings are extremely troubling.”

According to the latest census, Pakistan’s population in 2023 was 241.49 million, while according to the ECP website in July, the country had 127 million voters or 52% of the total population.

It is worth stating here that about 42% of Pakistan’s population is likely to be under the age of 18 years. In other words, 58% or 140 million population was eligible to become a voter in 2023. This means six pc or 13 million of the eligible persons have not been registered as voters.

According to the census, the female-male ratio is 49:51, which is further skewed by three points at 46:54 due to poor registration of voters.

‘Differential impact’

The above-stated discrepancies are likely to make a differential impact in most constituencies of the 102 districts on various political parties in future elections. It is worth noting here that in 2018 general elections, in 48 NA constituencies the margin of victory was less than 5,000 and in 40 NA constituencies it was between 5,001 and 10,000.

“Therefore, a small addition or suppression of registration of vote can lead to a huge impact at the national and provincial level. Hence, it is imperative to measure the impact of under; and over-registration of voters as candidates/parties can enhance probability of their victory by using these two tools. Therefore, it must be investigated and rectified without any delay,” the study added.

Pattan urged the ECP, Nadra and the caretaker government to use all the available resources to delete names of ineligible voters and make sure no one was disenfranchised from participating in coming elections. “This should be completed within a couple of weeks so that general elections could be held on time,” it urged.

“Sufficient evidence is now available to argue that most of the unregistered persons as voters happen to be female, poor, and youth. As a provision of CNIC and voter registration under the Constitution and law have been the responsibility and need of the state. Therefore, the state should reform policy of issuance of CNIC and vote registration…[and ensure] system of birth and death registration is improved,” it said.

Published in Dawn, October 13th, 2023