NAWAZ Sharif is back and anyone betting against him becoming the next prime minister is likely to lose. Some have already lost after insisting he’d never return, as that would be tantamount to him falling into the establishment’s trap.

Don’t mistake my view for enthusiastic support one way or the other; it’s just an assessment. I am no sage and rarely refer to something I wrote in the past, but have said over the past weeks that analysts and their audiences alike may be suffering from over-analysis and missing the forest for the trees.

Analysis is even more suspect, and weaker, when it isn’t rooted in a reading of the ground reality and merely represents the wishes or conforms to their partisan stance. Along with their audiences, some analysts can create (mis)information silos.

There may also be individuals with integrity in the media who follow such a path out of belief, but whatever your driver or motivator you end up sacrificing your claim to being an ‘independent’ journalist. To be honest, the independent journalist is fast becoming an extinct species.

Who wants to listen to balanced journalistic voices in such a polarised and charged political environment?

Who wants to listen to balanced journalistic voices in such a polarised and charged political environment as ours? It is ‘us versus them’. Nobody is willing to take prisoners. And here we are, where the credibility of the written, spoken word is a function of your point of reference.

By no means is this issue typical to Pakistan. It is a global phenomenon in the ‘post-truth’ era whether in the US, India or Brazil. Populist leaders have created their cult followings, and worthy men and women in the media play to this gallery in order to maximise reach and income. Preaching to the choir is profitable; advancing balanced views isn’t. It’s as simple as that.

While these lines may sound like a digression, they aren’t. What are the two dominant political points of view in the country? One holds that PTI is the most popular political party and would win any election where it is allowed to campaign and participate freely.

Despite a recent Gallup poll showing a spike in Nawaz Sharif’s popularity since his return on Oct 21, I am more sympathetic to the view that, as we speak, the Imran Khan-led PTI remains a formidable political force and could win an election on its own.

The other point of view is that Nawaz Sharif’s return, coupled with Maryam Nawaz Sharif’s reorganisation of the party, particularly in its power base of Punjab, has been a shot in the arm for the PML-N and the party’s rank and file is now motivated and galvanised enough to be able to put their leader back in the Prime Minister’s House.

Those saying this are not just party loyalists but media analysts too; they need a reality check. There can be no doubt Nawaz Sharif fell victim to a conspiracy where the establishment and judiciary joined hands to oust him from office and also jailed him and his daughter on the flimsiest of charges.

In doing so, they created political instability and an ongoing economic crisis that has inflicted untold pain on the poorest of Pakistanis in particular. Today, the country is teetering on the verge of default. Those who have steered us to this disaster are now rowing back feverishly to turn back the clock.

Whether they have the desire, or even the ability, to go back to 2011, 2013-14, 2016 or to just before the 2018 elections is yet to be clear. What we see is that with considerable brutal force, the pushback has been happening.

What happened in the ‘get Nawaz’ operation from 2016 onwards to the final days of the PTI government in office only propelled Nawaz Sharif’s popularity higher. His ‘vote ko izzat do’ slogan resonated with the people.

When he named names in that now-memorable 2020 Gujranwala jalsa, the massive crowd roared its approval. Soon, Punjab towns and the countryside heard echoes of slogans challenging the primacy of the most powerful institution’s leadership that even a few months earlier nobody could have dreamt of.

Evidence started to emerge in, for example, the Daska by-election in 2021, where the PML-N candidate pulled off a win despite the documented efforts of the Punjab government and the PTI Tiger Force chief to steal the election.

The tide started to turn when it emerged that PTI’s former benefactors had now turned against the party and were backing the no-confidence motion against the prime minister they once so proudly owned and turned out to salute en masse at GHQ.

The crisis was triggered less by ‘interference in military transfers and postings’ and jockeying for power but more by the former army chief’s burning desire to secure a second extension to remain in office for another three years to total nine! He was sure if Imran Khan’s cage was sufficiently rattled he’d be retained.

It seemed the PDM, mostly the PML-N, saw through the game being played, and Nawaz Sharif held his nerve and refused to retain the chief when his own party-led coalition took over power. From the Punjab by-elections to the dissolution of the assembly in the province and KP, most of the actions were seen as moves on a complicated chessboard by the former army chief.

Now the military, under the new leadership, seems determined to execute the ‘reset to 2016’ (at least), and like the run-up to and the 2018 election itself and its aftermath, the 2024 poll too will likely see more or less a ‘guaranteed’ outcome. A freer electoral exercise will have to wait another few years.

Nawaz Sharif may be headed for the PM’s House, but how he is judged will hinge largely on whether he can revive the economy. His credibility will be restored if he can. Equally his longevity in office will depend on how long he can suppress his civilian supremacy instinct and stick to his ‘I forgive all who wronged me’ mantra.

The writer is a former editor of Dawn.

abbas.nasir@hotmail.com

Published in Dawn, October 29th, 2023