ISLAMABAD: Even though initial assessment indicates a loss of around $30 billion, the full impact of the 2022 monsoon floods in Pakistan in terms of GDP was still unknown, while the reconstruction and rehabilitation activities “may increase costs by billions of dollars”, according to the United Nations Environment Prog­ra­mme (UNEP) that released Pakistan chapter of its case study on Tuesday.

The chapter, ‘Cascading Impacts and Floods: Building adaptive capacity in Pakistan’, said though an early assessment indicates total damages and losses of around $30bn, with up to 9.1 million people pushed into poverty and a further 1.9m falling into multi-dimensional poverty, the reconstruction and rehabilitation activities may increase costs by billions of dollars.

The case study on Pakistan, part of the UNEP report ‘Adaptation Gap Report 2023’, also outlined factors that thwarted the damage assessment.

Pakistan chapter of Adaptation Gap Report 2023 says full GDP impact ‘still unknown’

These factors included poor communication of loss and damage via data collection, lack of monitoring of flooding over geographical areas, limited engagement with non-governmental organisations and difficulty in verifying and quantifying satellite data.

Less time for rebuilding

Pakistan is one of the countries most affected by climate change ranks and natural disasters. Over the past three decades, climate-related disasters have caused a significant loss of life and sufficient socioeconomic damage to trigger a reversal of development gains, the study stated.

Between 1992 and 2021, climate and weather-related disasters in Pakistan resulted in a total economic loss of $29.3bn.

The 2010 flood alone affected more than 20m people and resulted in the deaths of more than 1,700 individuals. It caused infrastructure, housing, agriculture and livestock damage on over 20 per cent of the country’s land area.

The frequency, scale and magnitude of natural disasters are increasing in Pakistan, the study warned, adding that the window for rebuilding and rehabilitation after each calamity is “getting smaller and smaller”.

According to the study, these damages are caused not only by natural vulnerability but also social vulnerability.

“Natural hazards, especially flooding and drought, have a direct impact on agriculture and food security. Disaster risk in Pakistan is also driven by its social vulnerability, which is caused by high rates of multi-dimensional poverty.”

Over time, the effects of climate have also altered traditional weather patterns. The monsoon period lasts from June to September and retreats from October to November, said the study, adding that around 60pc of the annual rainfall in Pakistan occurs during this season.

“Monsoons typically track north, but in 2022, all eight recorded monsoon depressions went towards the southern regions of Balochistan and Sindh. It is thought that this may have been due to elevated surface temperatures.”

Published in Dawn, November 8th, 2023