ISLAMABAD: Almost all the provinces and distribution companies as well as the power regulator have raised questions over the revised Rs510 billion investment plan for transmission system to be implemented by the National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC) over three years (2023-25).

Similar objections were raised by provinces in January this year over insufficient allocations for evacuation of power from their priority power plants when the NTDC had proposed an investment outlay of about Rs370bn for the same (2023-25) period.

The plan was subsequently returned to the transmission system operator by the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) for more clarity and consultations with the governments of provinces, Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.

The NTDC has come up with an upward revised investment plan to Rs510bn from Rs370bn. It has responded to several objections raised by the Discos and provincial and regional governments that Nepra has highlighted as moot points for further examination.

On Wednesday, Nepra held a public hearing in which the NTDC gave a detailed view of its plan as it was pointed out that even the revised plan was unrealistic to address system constraints that had been resulting in repeated breakdowns, sometimes plunging the entire country to darkness.

Public hearing notes even NTDC’s revised scheme unrealistic to address system constraints that led to nationwide blackouts

Nepra representatives pointed out that the blackout problem emanated with the transmission of generation from the southern part of the country to the north because of transmission gaps and therefore investment should be planned to address longstanding system constraints but the investment plan appeared insufficient in this regard. The regulator would continue the hearing over the coming days.

The NTDC explained that while the biggest chunk of Rs277bn or 54pc was planned for 30 projects for power evacuation, the second largest focus was on constrain removal or system expansion involving 51 projects worth Rs173bn or 34pc of total investment. The remaining investment was directed towards special economic zones and other projects worth Rs30bn each or 6pc each.

Province-wise, the NTDC said the investment for the transmission system was mainly based on the indicative generation capacity expansion plan (IGCEP) approved by the regulator and the projects pointed out by the provinces or other stakeholders were to be completed later than the three-year transmission investment plan.

It said under the plan, 18 projects worth Rs224bn or 44pc had been envisaged for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, followed by 46 projects costing Rs178bn in Punjab accounted for 35pc, 15 projects in Sindh worth Rs43bn accounting for 9pc and eight projects for Balochistan worth Rs12bn or 20pc share.

There were also questions over the small investment of 2pc targeted for Balochistan where darkness prevailed on the night-map due to less supply of electricity. Issues were also highlighted regarding insufficient recovery of bills in the same province. It was emphasised that the investment plan should be finalised keeping in view the system integrity, reliability and sustainability for uninterrupted power supply to the customers.

The public hearing was informed by the NTDC that a critical component of its strategy was the Transmission of Electricity (Right of Way) Bill which envisaged to address various issues including crossings of railways, national highways, and motorways. The bill, which is currently pending legislation, has been forwarded to the Ministry of Energy for further processing.

It was also reported that the transmission investment plan was closely aligned with the Transmission System Expansion Plan (TSEP), where each project was technically justified. This plan takes into account the demand forecast of each distribution company (Disco) and coordinates with them for proposing projects. The planning process adheres to the stipulations of the Grid Code 2023.

The investment plan encompasses various critical transmission projects, including power evacuation schemes for upcoming generation projects, system reinforcements, and stability improvements. However, NTDC faces challenges regarding Right of Way, encountering resistance from Project Affected People, historical lack of compensation policies, and inadequate legal frameworks. These issues have led to delays in project comp­leti­on, penalties, loan issues with lenders, and increased project costs.

Published in Dawn, November 23rd, 2023