Nawaz’s dilemma

Published December 25, 2023

TO paraphrase a quote, the welcome rain leaves behind mud that sticks. The PML-N received the ‘rain’ it wanted but its leadership must now contend with its unpleasant residue.

On the one hand, in several districts, the party has to choose between two or more aspirants for its ticket from the same constituency for the upcoming elections, and on the other, it is expected by the powers that be to accommodate the Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party.

The IPP, a group of national and provincial lawmakers from Punjab who deserted the PTI to side with the PDM to oust their own party’s governments in Islamabad and Punjab or broke away from it in the aftermath of the May 9 events, has sought ‘seat adjustments’ with the PML-N on 110 national and provincial constituencies.

This is a big ask from the PML-N, which is already contending with a rebellion-like situation in various constituencies due to internal discord over the award of party tickets.

It is clear to many that the refusal to ‘adequately accommodate’ the IPP would dent PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif’s relations with the powers that be and divide pro-establishment voters between the two parties. By accommodating the IPP, he risks further alienating anti-establishment group within his party.

That is not all Mr Sharif has to tackle — and soon — if he wants to see his party return to power for a fourth term; a tougher challenge stems from the differences within his family. In some constituencies, there have been divisions between the ‘favourites’ of party president Shehbaz Sharif and chief organiser Maryam Nawaz.

So far, there are a few signs of Mr Sharif being able to perform a balancing act between competing interests within the party, and handle pressure coming from multiple outside sources. Hence, there is a long wait in the finalisation of party candidates and the issuance of tickets. But before Mr Sharif can tackle internal conflicts, he will need to sort out the IPP dilemma.

Unless there is clarity on the PML-N’s future relationship with what is widely seen as the king’s party, he will not be able to tackle internal party disputes over nominations.

How smooth the path to his party’s electoral victory will be depends on how sagaciously the PML-N supremo overcomes these challenges without antagonising those demanding their pound of flesh from him.

Published in Dawn, December 25th, 2023

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