AS 2023 drew to a close, Pakistan’s decision to expel illegal immigrants remained a significant geopolitical and humanitarian issue. The policy, which sparked widespread concern, has seen its dynamics evolve over the year, profoundly impacting not only the individuals involved but also regional stability.

In early October, the caretaker government announced a mass deportation plan, the Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan, which, while ostensibly applicable to all illegal foreigners, appeared to disproportionately target undocumented Afghans.

Pakistan, home to an estimated three to four million Afghan refugees and migrants — including 600,000 who arrived since the Taliban rode into Kabul in August 2021 — initiated these deportations by the month’s end, forcing many to return to their crisis-wracked home country within a terribly short time frame.

The urgency and scale of these repatriations, with reports of tens of thousands heading for the border, underscored the dire situation many Afghans faced. As of Dec 20, state media says about 440,124 Afghans have been repatriated to Afghanistan.

As the year progressed, the policy’s implementation revealed a complex tapestry of motivations and consequences. The government cited security concerns, particularly the threat from the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, as a key driver.

The expulsions came months after terrorist attacks in Balochistan’s Sui and on a military installation in Zhob claimed the lives of a dozen soldiers. At the time, it was the military’s largest single-day death toll in 2023. It would be surpassed by another, deadlier militant attack on a compound being used by the army in Dera Ismail Khan in December. It ended up claiming 23 lives. Another two soldiers fell in a separate operation that same day. The Zhob and D.I. Khan attacks were claimed by the Tehreek-i-Jihad Pakistan, considered an offshoot of the TTP.

Islamabad’s frustrations with the Taliban regime in Kabul, especially regarding the TTP’s activities, were evident. The deteriorating relations between the two governments, once allies, now strained under the weight of mutual recriminations and escalating security challenges.

The human toll of the expulsions was stark. Many Afghans, including those with valid documents, fled Pakistan to escape police harassment. Reports of authorities confiscating migrants’ money exacerbated the difficulties these individuals faced upon their return, thrusting them into deeper poverty and vulnerability.

Internationally, the situation drew criticism and concern. Humanitarian organisations, foreign governments, and rights groups urged the government to reconsider its approach, highlighting the policy’s potential to violate international law and principles, particularly the principle of non-refoulement.

The United Nations and other agencies called for a compassionate and legally sound handling of the situation. Ironically, among the foreign governments sounding the alarm were the US and Britain, whose conspicuous failure to resettle the Afghans they had pledged to take in has been glaring. Their inaction has exacerbated the crisis, leaving many Afghans in a state of precarious uncertainty.

The historical role of the US and Britain in shaping Afghanistan’s trajectory is significant and cannot be overlooked. Their decades-long involvement in the region, by way of military and political interventions, has been a critical factor in the unfolding of current events. The apparent reluctance of these nations to now offer refuge and support to those affected by their policies raises critical questions about their commitment to humanitarian principles and international responsibility.

On the Afghan side, the Taliban’s response highlighted the difficulties of managing the sudden influx of returnees. Afghanistan, already grappling with a severe humanitarian crisis, found itself ill-prepared to accommodate and support the large numbers of returning Afghans. The winter season further exacerbated the hardships faced by these returnees, many of whom arrived with limited resources and prospects.

All the while, government officials continued to emphasise the country’s long history of hosting refugees and the need to regulate their presence legally. Their perspective highlighted the challenges Pakistan faced in balancing humanitarian responsibilities with national security concerns.

As the expulsions continue, the realities faced by returning Afghans are grim. For many of these individuals, Pakistan was more than just a refuge; it was a home where they had lived for decades, and their forced return to Afghanistan represents a disconnection from their lives and communities.

The situation also has broader implications for regional stability. The mass deportations have the potential to fuel further displacement and migration, affecting neighbouring countries and beyond. The policy’s potential to drive individuals towards criminality or armed opposition, including the possibility of some joining the ranks of the TTP, also raises serious security concerns. As the world steps into the new year, the future for Afghan migrants, those within Pakistan as well as those repatriated, remains uncertain.

The international community’s role in addressing this crisis, through diplomatic efforts, humanitarian aid, and resettlement programmes, will be crucial in shaping the outcomes. It is a poignant reminder that behind every policy are human lives irrevocably changed. It also reminds us of the long-lasting impacts of geopolitical decisions and the enduring moral responsibilities that accompany them.