EVERY year brings forth a plethora of books on various topics. As far as economics is concerned, one of the interesting releases of 2023 was Didac Queralt’s Pawned States. Analysing foreign lending to developing nations since the 19th century, he concluded that a reliance on foreign credit had resulted in persistent economic and political instability.

What made this interesting was the fact that last year, this writer undertook an inquiry into the role of foreign assistance to Pakistan and its various aspects. The task is now complete, with the findings to be published soon by PIDE. And like Didac, the findings call for some serious contemplation.

It proved to be a difficult task. Covering various aspects of foreign aid meant sifting through either highly scattered or non-available information. Both government officials and donors like to pretend that everything is ‘out there’, but that is simply not the case.

Anyways, the first important query related to how much aid has Pakistan really received till now. Specifically, of the ‘committed’ aid since 1950 ($200 billion plus), how much aid did Pakistan really receive? Surprisingly, no one knows. The research, accumulating data from various sources, concluded that the received amount is anywhere between $155 to $157bn.

But even this figure does not tell the exact quantum of foreign aid that Pakistan received. Why? Because there have historically been ‘off the books’ inflows (especially under military rule) that have never been officially recorded. For example, a recently declassified US document revealed that President Carter authorised $2bn for Pakistan (with an equivalent matching grant from Saudi Arabia).

Nowhere in official documents do we find mention of this inflow. Similarly, during a Congressional hearing in 2007, a senior fellow from the Woodrow Wilson Institute revealed that off-the-books aid to Pakistan was equivalent to the officially provided aid ($7bn plus).

Pakistan has been saddled with external debt which it never required.

Therefore, there is no concise estimate of how much aid has really flown into Pakistan’s coffers.

The next — and the most important question to address — was to gauge whether foreign aid has been of economic benefit to Pakistan or not. The vast literature on this subject comes up with a mixed conclusion. We do not get any clear-cut answer, partly because they either deal with only a specific aspect, and a majority of these studies use econometric methodologies that are unclear in terms of causation and the ‘net’ result of inflows. The major shortcoming of these studies, arguably, is that none of these seem to be based on criterion/a for gauging the effectiveness of foreign aid.

Things turn more complicated considering that no proper technical evaluation (cost-benefit analysis) has ever been carried out of majority of foreign-funded projects which have been a regular feature since the 1950s (1,268 projects being the average number in the last decade, being executed across the breadth of the country). But there exists little literature in terms of its outcomes, especially in the long-run.

Luckily, though, history came to the rescue. To cut a long story short, aid provision by industrialised nations did not start as some unquestioned charitable provision born out of humanitarian considerations. Rather, from moulding ‘developing’ nations into their own growth models to forcing them into their own spheres of influence, the underlying factors varied, often inciting deep, long-drawn debates over the raison d’etre of aid provision to poor countries.

These debates produced two interesting works: a report by MIT and another by economists Mark Millikan and Walt Rostow. In these, we find a clear statement of criterion (used by this study) to gauge effectiveness of foreign aid by a receiving country.

Briefly put, foreign aid would be useful if it does not create future liabilities, is not ‘source-tied’, leads to sustainable development as well as sustainable economic growth, raises the domestic marginal savings rate leading to higher capital formation (lessening dependence on external capital), higher capital formation in turn being complemented by a development programme that helps expand economic capacity to absorb additional capital.

This is as clear a criterion for gauging foreign aid’s effectiveness as there can be, and our research finds that Pakistan does not meet even a single criterion despite substantial doses of aid inflows. Sure, marginal improvements do occur, and one may witness spikes in selected years (gross capital formation, for example). But in sum aggregate, there is nothing to celebrate.

In all these years, Pakistan’s economy instead finds itself saddled with huge external liabilities and has had to pay a steep cost (detailed in the paper). Take, for example, the net flow number (dollar inflow vs outflow): in the 21st century, the number stands in excess of negative $50bn, meaning more dollars flowing out of Pakistan than coming in (as is likely to be the case in the near future).

Perhaps astonishingly, Pakistan has been saddled with external debt which it never required in the first place, a situation for which both the donors and successive governments (especially bureaucracy) is to blame. An example would suffice. A government department happily lapped up a $400 million loan under the fancy moniker of ‘capacity building’.

The loan was totally wasted, with no indication of any improvement. Despite this failure, another $400m loan for the same organisation was agreed upon in 2019 (it remains unutilised till now), and a further $300m loan was agreed upon just recently. You can bet that all these loans will not bring any major improvement in the said organisation’s working.

Let me conclude by suggesting that the research is not aimed as some ‘anti-donor’ agenda; rather, it brings forth the critical need to query why we need all the foreign loans and what is the outcome. Unfortunately, I find that in sum aggregate, the outcomes for the country and its people are not something to gloat about. Surprisingly, the threadbare economic manifestos of parties don’t even mention foreign assistance as a policy question.

This needs to change for Pakistan’s sake.

The writer is an economist and a research fellow at PIDE. The views expressed here are his own.

X: @ShahidMohmand79

shahid.mohmand@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, January 13th, 2024