Despite swirling doubts and misgivings, the countdown to an eagerly anticipated and long overdue general election is now well and truly underway.

Even though Pakistan entered the 21st century under military rule (with a side of PML-Q, or the ‘king’s party’ as it was commonly known), three relatively smooth transitions of power followed — in 2008, 2013 and 2018.

This will be the first time, however, that polls are to be held long after the constitutionally mandated period of three months from the dissolution of the last assembly has expired.

This delay has caused consternation among political and non-political actors alike; the delay has not been kind to the fledgling economy, while the transient nature of the caretaker setups (which in the case of Punjab and KP have dragged on for over 10 months) has created a degree of uncertainty not seen in more than two decades.

Before looking towards February 8, it would be instructive to cast a glance back at the three previous electoral exercises, with all its peculiarities.

In 2008, riding a wave of sympathy following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the PPP delivered a commanding performance, securing 88 seats, which included victories in Punjab and KP. However, in subsequent years, the tricolour of the party founded by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto receded and remained largely within the confines of its home province of Sindh.

By contrast, the PML-N, which was the runner-up in 2008 and, at least initially, a partner in the ruling alliance before circumstances drove a wedge between the party of the Sharifs and the PPP, expanded their support base exponentially. The next time around, it doubled its control over the country, grabbing over 125 NA seats to form a powerful government that did not have its hands tied by concerns of political expedience and the demands of ruling allies.

The year 2013 also saw the electoral ‘coming of age’ of the PTI on the election map. The party began its journey by forming a government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa — initially partnering with the Jamaat-i-Islami before forging their own path.

It would be 2018 when the PTI’s political fortunes would change, and they would be propelled into ‘ruling party’ status after bagging around 120 NA seats.

Looking at these outcomes, it is easy to conclude that the only constant in politics is ‘change’. But behind the shifting contours of party colours lie the omnipresent ground realities that are unique to Pakistan; chief among them being the towering military establishment, whose spectre looms over each respective political set-up.

It may take a back seat for some time, and in other cases its role may be more overt — as has been the case over the past several months — but the influence of the powers that be can never be ignored.

Another major factor to keep in mind is the security paradigm, which is the source of a great deal of inequality among parties. For instance, in 2013, the PPP, ANP and MQM faced a multitude of terrorist attacks which effectively derailed their election campaigns in parts of Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Karachi.

This time around, we are witnessing the PTI being squeezed between the courts and constitutional institutions — the biggest setback being the imprisonment of their charismatic leader and the loss of their iconic election symbol.

This ‘inequality’ is not new in the run-up to the elections, indeed past experience has shown us that nearly every five years, some parties prove to be more equal than others. This perceived lack of a ‘level playing field’ has by now become a buzzword for the polls, with everyone from Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari to Gohar Ali Khan co-opting the phrase for their own use.

But the reality is that such impediments do cast a long shadow over the legitimacy of any election, and with candidates handicapped by the absence of political symbols, all eyes will be on what the PTI is able to accomplish.

Published in Dawn, January 15th, 2024