• Unless it gets ‘bat’ symbol back in time, PTI may be unable to add to its tally when polls are held for upper house
• Over half of PPP, PML-N lawmakers due to retire on March 11
• Incoming Senate will have 96, not 100 members, as ex-Fata areas lose their seats

THE Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI), which is facing a tough time in the run up to the general elections scheduled for February 8, looks set to retain a significant presence in the Senate until 2027.

On the other hand, term-wise data of senators suggests that the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) stand to lose a large chunk of their members — 69 per cent and 57 per cent, respectively — as they retire on March 11 after completing their terms.

But depending on how they fare in the upcoming polls, both PML-N and PPP would definitely be able to add to their tally when March rolls around. The PTI, however, will be at a definite disadvantage, given that its candidates will enter the assembly as ‘independents’.

Then, even if the party of Imran Khan is able to satisfy the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) in time by holding intra-party elections that conform to ECP standards, it would require the complete loyalty of all independent lawmakers in all five legislatures to ensure that its candidates get the required number of votes for elevation to the Senate.

Once the general elections are done with, the president and the provincial governors will have to summon the inaugural sessions of their respective assemblies as soon as possible to enable the newly-elected lawmakers to vote for the Senate polls, which are due in the first week of March.

As soon as the upper house becomes fully functional, all the legislatures will then be required to vote for the country’s president, as incumbent Dr Arif Alvi is already on borrowed time, his term having expired on Sept 9 last year.

‘House of the Federation’

Up until now, the total strength of the Senate has been 100, including 23 members each from the four federating units, and four each from erstwhile Fata and Islamabad.

The 23 seats allocated to a province comprise 14 general seats, four reserved for women, four for technocrats and one for a minority member.

This time around, though, only 96 members will grace the chamber as the representation of the erstwhile tribal areas will end, following their merger with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa under the

25th Constitutional Am­­­e­­n­dment. This means that the upcoming elections to the Senate will elect 48 new senators — 11 each from all the four provinces on general and technocrats seats, two from Islamabad and two minority members from Punjab and Sindh.

At present, the house has 97 members, due to the death of PML-N’s Rana Maqbool Ahmed, and the resignations of PTI’s Shaukat Tarin and Anwaarul Haq Kakar of the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) after assuming the office of the caretaker prime minister.

The term of a senator is six years, but half of them retire every three years, and elections are held for new members.

Elections to fill the seats allocated to each province are held in accordance with the system of proportional representation, by means of the single transferable vote, and members of each provincial assembly elect their respective representatives, whereas members of the National Assembly vote to elect senators from Islamabad. The 12 MNAs from erstwhile Fata used to vote for the four senators from their areas.

This is why the outcome of Senate elections always hinged on party positions in the four provincial assemblies, as well as the National Assembly.

In the past, it was always easy to predict the results of the Senate polls after looking at party positions in the provinces. However, this time around, the Senate’s possible future complexion will only become clear after the Feb 8 general elections.

Who is retiring?

The data shows that out of the 49 members retiring in March from the current 97-member upper house, only seven belong to the PTI.

Presently, the PTI is the single largest party in the Senate with 24 senators, which means it will continue to maintain a significant presence in the upper house with at least 17 senators staying on till March 2027.

The seven retiring PTI members include Leader of the Opposition in the Senate Dr Shahzad Waseem, former minister Azam Swati, Faisal Javed and Walid Iqbal, who is chairman of the Senate Committee on Human Rights.

The party, which first entered the Senate in 2015, became the single largest party in the upper house in March 2021 due to its numerical strength in the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assemblies.

In addition, this year will see 12 out of 21 PPP senators and 11 out of 16 PML-N lawmakers retiring on March 11.

Raza Rabbani, Moula Bux Chandio, Bahramand Tangi, Rukhsana Zuberi, Quratulain Marri and Waqar Mehdi are among the PPP senators who will be completing their six-year term in March.

Leader of the House and former finance minister Ishaq Dar, Mushahid Hussain Sayed, Musadik Malik, Kamran Michael and Nuzhat Sadiq are prominent among the PML-N senators who will retire at the same time.

A total of five members from BAP are also retiring, including incumbent Chairman Sadiq Sanjrani.

Then there are two senators each from the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI-F) and National Party (NP) whose term will end on March 11. The NP presently has only two senators — Tahir Bizenjo and Muhammad Akram.

Former law minister Farogh Naseem is the only senator from the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) to complete his term, whereas two senators — Faisal Sabzwari and Khalida Ateeb — will continue until 2027.

The Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP), PML-Functional and Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) have one senator each at the moment, all three of whom are set to retire in March.

All six independent senators in the present house are also set to retire in March. These independents are Deputy Senate Chairman Mirza Muhammad Afridi, Dilawar Khan, Hidayatullah, Hilalur Rehman, Naseebullah Bazai and Shamim Afridi.

Others retiring on March 11, 2024 include Dr Asif Kirmani, Hafiz Abdul Karim, Asad Junejo, Rana Mehmoodul Hassan, Shaheen Khalid Butt and Sabir Shah of the PML-N; Anwar Lal Dean (Minority Sindh), Keshoo Bai, Khalida Sikandar Mandhro, Rubina Khalid and Ali Shah Jamot of the PPP; Dr Mehr Taj Roghani, Seemee Ezdee and Fida Muhammad of the PTI; Moulvi Faiz Muhammad and Talha Mehmood of the JUI-F; Abida Azeem, Ahmed Khan, Kauda Babar and Sana Jamali of BAP; Muzaffar Hussain Shah (PML-F); Sardar Shafiq Tareen (PkMAP); Mushtaq Ahmed (JI).

Published in Dawn, January 22nd, 2024