INSPIRING the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf to victory in the 2024 general elections against heavy odds from inside a jail cell will be a whole new ball game for the party’s beleaguered founder.

Imran Khan now has a ‘hat trick’ of convictions on his record — two cases related to Toshakhana purchases and the much-touted cipher case.

Moreover, his party’s men and women have been deprived of their iconic ‘bat’ symbol, faced the rejection of nomination papers and kept away from political discourse. They continue to face the wrath of the powers that be for the May 9 mayhem, and are confronted with the problem of many stalwarts changing loyalties.

Now, the only hope for the legendary cricket star-turned-prime minister lies in people defying the odds and coming out to vote for his party’s candidates – albeit as independents – on Feb 8.

Unlike the past, he doesn’t have a smartphone with him in prison to convey his messages through social media, which was his forte during his time in power and beyond.

From the rarefied environs of PM Office to the confines of a cell in Adiala Jail, Imran Khan’s political fall has been as spectacular as his rise. Despite all adversity, however, the PTI founder has proven resilient against all attempts to write him off as a political force

Once considered a favourite of the powers that be, Mr Khan is now virtually persona non grata in the same circles, thanks to his disparaging rhetoric against state institutions after being removed from power through a no-confidence vote in April 2022.

Things, however, came to a head when his supporters staged violent protests on May 9, 2023 after the ex-PM was arrested in the Toshakhana case, the aftermath of which saw him and his party leaders being targeted in a state-backed crackdown for attacking military installations.

Jailed and unable to vigorously campaign for the polls, Mr Khan was replaced by Barrister Gohar Ali Khan as party chairman in intra-party elections that were later shot down by the Election Commission of Pakistan. However, his supporters are still hoping that, if not the man himself, even the spectre of Imran Khan will be enough to bring laurels for the party on polling day.

Electoral evolution

Mr Khan formed the PTI on April 25, 1996 under a populist slogan, to fight for social justice. In its first foray into electoral politics in the 1997 general elections, PTI failed to get even a single National Assembly seat. In the 2002 polls, Mr Khan managed to get win his lone seat, while the 2013 elections brought him success in 27 NA constituencies. However, by the 2018 polls, the party turned had into the leading wicket taker.

But the upcoming elections are a totally different affair for Mr Khan, who is used to having his way, both on the cricket pitch and in the political arena.

His incarceration has made it difficult for him to issue directives to the party’s rank and file – even the list of party ticketholders had to be committed to memory by his aides because of restrictions on taking notes during meetings in jail.

Moreover, the first- and second-tier party leadership is also nowhere to be seen; they are either in jail, in hiding, or have changed political loyalties.

Mr Khan, 71, recently expressed his helplessness and the handicaps he faces in contesting the polls.

“I don’t have my A and B team and [I am] compelled to contest elections with under-16 players,” Mr Khan mused while talking to journalists at Adiala Jail during a hearing of the cipher case on Jan 22.

Dreams and realities

In 2018, PTI won a sizeable number of seats in the Centre, Punjab and KP. The party formed a coalition government in the Centre and Punjab and its own government in KP, and Mr Khan became the 22nd prime minister of Pakistan on Aug 17, 2018.

After winning the 2018 polls, the former cricket captain styled himself as a pious anti-poverty reformer and dreamt of building an ‘Islamic welfare state’ — the Riasat-i-Madina — where wealth would be shared equitably. He also made ambitious promises that included reforming the country’s tax system and bureaucracy, giving shelter to five million families, creating 10 million jobs and justice for all.

However, inflation soared, the rupee plummeted and the country became crippled by debt, stoking anger and criticism that Mr Khan had mishandled the economy.

Amongst the impediments his administration faced were a lack of know-how in running the government’s affairs, overcoming cartels and reining in the bureaucracy.

However, his inflexibility and non-reconciliatory attitude towards other political forces, combined with a firm belief in his and his aides’ infallibility – along with some questionable decisions made by those in his inner circle – ostensibly led to the differences with the establishment, which culminated in his ouster and eventual incarceration.

During his time in power, Mr Khan opened multiple fronts in his bid to address the scores of problems confronting the country. This approach, while wildly popular, proved to be counterproductive as he could not settle most of the issues he set out to solve due to a lack of focus, leaving the execution of his initiatives at the mercy of the bureaucracy.

(Over)ambitious targets

During his time in the PM Office, Mr Khan was said to preside over 10 to 15 meetings a day on various key national issues. Reportedly, each meeting did not last more than 15 minutes.

Some of those who worked with him at the time were rubbed the wrong way when he tried to impose his decisions on participants, such as federal ministers and experts, who eventually started keeping mum and agreeing with whatever he would say.

He was also regarded by some as self-centred, stubborn and even narcissistic. These included not just his detractors, but also many allies, who later distanced themselves or were side-lined.

This also allowed him to be manipulated by the bureaucracy in certain cases, and he ended up making false promises by presenting cosmetic measures as being essential for the public good, though there was nothing concrete in those schemes. One example of such plans was the scheme for Islamabad’s New Blue Area, which was supposed to fetch huge foreign investment, but failed to materialise.

The development of the Ravi Riverfront as a futuristic business park saw him fall afoul of environmentalists who flayed the move, while the Naya Pakistan Housing Project — an ambitious venture to provide low-cost housing to lower income families — was mired in controversy after it emerged that the rebranded residential units were being sold to private buyers and overseas Pakistanis at premium rates.

He was also accused of leaving the door ajar for militants by allowing the return and resettlement of members of the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other such outfits without parliamentary approval, which led to their resurgence in 2022-2023.

However, the former PM’s time in power also saw several successful initiatives as well, some of which continue to the present day. The Ehsas social welfare programme, the Sehat Card initiative for state-funded healthcare, as well as the rolling out of the digital Raast payment system and the introduction of Naya Pakistan Certificates are all seen as positives from his time in power. It is also worth mentioning that foreign remittance and export numbers during his time in power were consistently in the green.

Beginning of the end

Instead of taking all political parties in parliament on board, Mr Khan preferred to adopt an adversarial attitude, calling his opponents all sorts of names. This prompted other forces to retaliate and made it difficult for PTI to smoothly conduct legislative business in parliament during their three-and-a-half-year term.

After his ouster, Mr Khan was accused of maligning state institutions and promoting political hatred in the country, especially amongst the youth. This also seemed to be counted among his demerits by the powers that be.

His apparent downfall began when he and his party’s lawmakers — at least those still loyal to him — opted to resign en masse after the success of the no-confidence motion against him in April, 2022.

Later, despite differences of opinion within his party, he dissolved the assemblies in the strongholds of Punjab and KP in a gambit to force snap elections.

When the PDM government looked reluctant to go for early elections, he kicked off a political drive through public meetings to push his narrative. He was targeted in a gun attack, receiving three bullets in Nov 2022 in Wazirabad while leading a rally.

Frustrated campaign

From within the confines of prison, Mr Khan has issued a number of guidelines for his party and supporters. Through his press talks at Adiala, he directed the PTI to launch the party’s election campaign and protest drive from Jan 28, which was met with a wave of arrests. He also asked party candidates to hold public meetings and gatherings, despite restrictions placed by the administration.

On Jan 23, he had warned party candidates that they could be replaced if they did not hold public meetings. “We are monitoring who [is] holding public meetings and rallies and who [is] not. Hold public meetings and bring people out of their homes because when the people come out nobody can stop them,” he told media persons who were covering the cipher case in jail.

But directing a campaign from jail is a complicated affair. According to a senior PTI leader, Mr Khan is not being allowed to meet party leaders and workers, except some of his lawyers, in prison. Due to the restrictions, he is conveying his directions to the party’s ranks through the legal team.

Because of these obstacles, he had complained that he had not thoroughly reviewed the over 900 candidates the party had selected for NA seats, along with hopefuls for the four provincial assemblies.

According to the party, only two meetings were held between Mr Khan and his lawyers, that lasted 20 to 25 minutes, in which he gave instructions about party candidates and elections. However, he is inexplicably confident that his party will win the polls and will give a “surprise” to the nation on election day under what he calls “Plan C”.

Published in Dawn, February 2nd, 2024