Sindh has remained under various dynasties ranging from Rai, Brahmin, Arabs, Soomra, Sama to Arghuns and Tarkhans and from Mughals, Kalhoros to Talpurs etc in the past. Later, the British invaded Sindh, dethroning the Talpurs by ending their 60-year rule and shifting the capital from Hyderabad to Karachi.

The province is home to several political dynasties and the electoral history of every second district indicates that these families, be they the Shirazis, Syeds, Arbabs, Mahars or Makhdooms et al, have all been ruling the roost under civilian and military regimes to maintain a stranglehold on the system.

In a nutshell, it is perhaps inevitable for major political parties to woo them through their tickets to consolidate their positions in order to reach the corridors of power. These politically well-entrenched ‘electables’ opt for the best bargain to stay relevant in the ongoing game of thrones.

PPP versus the rest

A plain reading of seat adjustments shows that outside of Karachi and Hyderabad, the polls in lower Sindh will be a contest between PPP and the rest of the field in several constituencies.

PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari took the lead, embarking on an aggressive Sindh-wide election campaign before heading to Lahore to shore up support in his own constituency. The campaign that began with a massive power show in Sanghar, is now expected to culminate in Larkana on Feb 6.

With polls just days away and electioneering entering its final phase, his party largely looks set to grab a fourth term in office at the provincial level. But the way seat adjustments are taking shape, neck and neck fights will be witnessed and rival parties — such as the conglomerate of parties and electables that is the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) — will be looking to grab or retain a number of constituencies.

But all sides are conscious of the fact that any defeat in one of their strongholds would put them in an awkward position until the next elections.

The PPP aims to win 65 general seats to get to the required tally of reserved seats needed to reach the magic number of 85 needed to form a government. The GDA, with new electables on its side, endeavours to reclaim areas it lost in 2018 or make further inroads to increase its numerical strength.

To even the score, the PPP has kept its relations intact with major political families who matter in Sindh by awarding party tickets to them.

Be it the Shirazis, Syeds, Arbabs, Mahars or Makhdooms, the ruling PPP has to placate them all if it wants to ensure smooth sailing to form a government in Sindh for the fourth successive time

Shirazis of Thatta

The name of the formidable Shirazis is synonymous with Thatta — a region where the Indus meets the Arabian Sea. However, even they had to join hands with the PPP before the 2018 elections after facing two consecutive terms of PPP government in Sindh that threatened to undermine their influence on their own turf, like what happened to Pir Pagara’s PML-Functional in Sanghar.

Just like other electables in the region, the Shirazis want to assert their dominance over police, the local administration, irrigation and lands — all of which had been undone by constant PPP rule in the area, despite the fact that the clan managed to win a number of seats as independents in the 2013 elections.

“The Shirazis have large landholding in the riverine area where they grow high income earning banana and sugarcane crops in pre-bifurcated Thatta,” says an agriculturist from Sujawal.

A case in point was Owais Muzaffar Tappi, considered extremely close to Asif Ali Zardari, who was elected from Thatta in 2013. While Mr Tappi had to quit the Sindh cabinet shortly afterwards amidst controversies, the Shirazis faced a host of criminal cases during the 2013 PPP regime.

After Tappi’s departure from Thatta’s political scene, Ali Hassan Zardari emerged out of nowhere in the last polls and went on to control Sindh’s irrigation system as a ‘de facto minister’.

This time, however, the PPP has offered the Shirazis the lone NA seat and one provincial seat from Thatta, as well as one of the two provincial seats in Sujawal to put them at ease.

“Shirazis need control in their area, thus they need to be in government. They tried to resist PPP till 2013 but had to give in and join the party,” says Sindh Taraqi Pasand Party Chairman Dr Qadir Magsi, who also hails from Thatta.

Mirzas of Badin

The electoral field in neighbouring Badin is also quite interesting as it is the area of the Mirzas, Dr Zulfikar Mirza’s family being the most notable among them. They continue to be at odds with the PPP ever since Dr Mirza’s infamous presser in 2011, when he hurled barbs at his one-time close friend, Asif Zardari, after the PPP formed a coalition government with the MQM.

Otherwise, Badin had been among the PPP’s safest constituencies, where its hold remained uncontested from 1977 until 2018.

Mirza’s wife Dr Fehmida had won Badin’s NA seat in 2018, but this time around has been denied the GDA ‘star’ symbol due to legal wrangling that continues until the time of going to press. Although her son is now in the field under the GDA banner, both the Mirzas and PPP are keeping their fingers crossed for a positive outcome on election day.

Marri versus Junejo

One of the reasons why Mr Bhutto-Zardari may have chosen Sanghar — one of the largest cotton producing areas in the country — to hold a major power show could be the heat his party colleague Shazia Marri is feeling at the hands of the GDA, which is actually a re-branding of the PML-F.

After Benazir Bhutto’s return to Pakistan from her first exile, PPP’s Shahnawaz Junejo won Sanghar’s NA seat in 1988 by defeating ex-PM Mohammad Khan Junejo. Afterwards, the PPP wasn’t able to win here until 2008, when Shahnawaz’s son Roshan Junejo bagged the NA seat. He retained the seat in both 2013 and 2018 elections on a PPP ticket.

Meanwhile, Shazia Marri won the Sanghar seat in a by-poll after PML-F’s Sadaruddin Shah vacated it in 2013, and then retained it in the 2018 elections.

Ms Marri is trying hard to retain her seat this year as well, but she is up against GDA’s Mohammad Khan Junejo — known for holding jirgas to settle blood feuds and wielding considerable influence. As Roshan Junejo and Mohammad Junejo are siblings, this contest has also divided the Junejo family.

Arbab-i-Ikhtiar of Thar

Scenic Tharparkar, which possesses billions of tonnes in precious coal reserves, is set for an interesting match, with the older and younger Arbabs facing each other. The district has been in the limelight for quite some time due to the excavation of the historic Karoonjhar hills in Nagarparkar, leading to a landmark judgement by the Sindh High Court that called for the preservation of the area under international guidelines.

All eyes would be focused on two high-profile contests in NA-214 and NA-215. In the former, interned PTI leader Shah Mahmood Qureshi was expected take on GDA’s Razaq Rahimoon and PPP’s Pir Ameer Ali Shah Jillani on NA-214. The facte of Mr Qureshi’s electoral bid is now unclear, given his latest sentencing in the cipher case.

In the latter constituency, GDA-backed former CM Arbab Ghulam Rahim is facing off against PPP’s Dr Mahesh Malani in what seems to be an evenly poised fight.

Meanwhile, GDA’s Arbab Zakaullah is engaged in a one-on-one battle with his own brother-in-law, Arbab Lutfullah in a provincial constituency. PPP’s Lutfullah had beaten Rahim in 2018 with a massive 20,000 vote lead.

Arbab Rahim last won an NA seat in 2002 as a candidate of the Musharraf-blessed king party’s, PML-Q, and is vying for it again, albeit under a new banner.

The powerful Arbabs basically hail from the Nohri community.

“In Thar’s politics Dr Arbab Rahim is basically the beneficiary of political capital raised by his late brother Arbab Amir Hassan,” believes Jai Parkash, a journalist from Mithi.

Ex-CM Arbab became a Sindh Assembly member on a PML-N ticket in 2013. Now, he is romancing the GDA in a bid to grab Thar’s NA seat. Interestingly, he won this seat in 1993 on a PPP ticket; he has changed loyalties so many times, it is hard to keep track.

Mango country

Home of sindhri mango orchards, Mirpu­rkhas has been PPP’s citadel, but the party faced the biggest upset here in 2018 when former jiyala Ali Nawaz Shah Rizvi trounced PPP’s Pir Hassan Shah independently.

Since 1988, PPP has never lost here — except for 1990 when MQM’s Anees Ahmed had won.

PPP has now picked veteran jiyala, Aftab Shah Jillani, to face his former mate Nawaz Shah on NA-211. PPP’s Mir Munawar Ali Talpur, who won NA-212, is contesting again on a PPP ticket to retain his seat.

Makhdoom’s son versus N’s Sindh chief

In lower Sindh’s smaller districts like Matiari, home of handicrafts and famous kashi tiles, it is all about the Makhdooms of Hala. They were frontline leaders of the PPP as long as Makhdoom Amin Fahim was alive.

Asif Zardari had anno­unced Fahim as the party’s candidate for the prime minister’s slot in case PPP won after Benazir Bhutto’s Dec 27, 2007 assassination. She herself had appointed Fahim president of PPP-Parliamentarians, the party’s main electoral arm which was created after sensing something fishy on Musharraf’s part.

Fahim, however, had a somewhat frosty relationship with Zardari after 2008, but was won over by the latter in 2012. After the towering figure’s demise, the Makhdooms seem to be keeping a low profile, yet have managed to get tickets for Matiari’s three seats for themselves. Fahim’s son Makhdoom Jamil is now contesting the NA seat against newly appointed PML-N Sindh President Bashir Memon.

Only a decade ago, a strong alliance of Memons, Jamotes and close friends of Amin Fahim, like Ali Ahmed Nizamani and Nazir Rahu, had formed with the tacit approval of Bashir Memon, who held important positions in the Sindh police at the time.

With an elected local government leadership and councillors on its side, the PPP has a clear edge over its opponents, and has also come under fire from its competitors over the issue of misuse of local government funds.

“We are making all out efforts on every polling station and leaving nothing to chance. Every vote counts and overconfidence is the worst danger in any election,” comments Taj Haider, a PPP veteran and in-charge of the party’s central election cell.

Published in Dawn, February 2nd, 2024