ISLAMABAD: In a move underscoring the shifting geopolitical landscape, Chinese President Xi Jinping recently acce­pted ambassador credentials from the representative of Afghanistan, a move that some observers say is tantamount to the first official recognition of the interim Taliban government by a major power.

The Afghan foreign ministry announced on Jan 30 that President Xi had formally accepted the letter of credence from Maulvi Asadullah, known as Bilal Karimi, as the ambassador extraordinary and plenipotentiary of Afghanistan to China.

The gesture by Beijing is laden with significance and is seen as important, both in symbolic and substantive terms. China has apparently conveyed to other countries that the Afghan Taliban’s control over Afghanistan or the Taliban’s Afghan interim government is a reality that cannot and should not be ignored.

Defending this step, Chinese officials have stated that China believed that Afghanistan and the Afghan people should not be left out and remain isolated in terms of their engagement with the international community.

In a briefing last week, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said China’s policy on Afghanistan is “consistent and clear”.

“As a traditionally frien­dly neighbour of Afgha­nistan, China is committed to a foreign policy of friendship towards all Afghan people and has maintained diplomatic ties and exchange and cooperation in various areas with Afghanistan,” he said. “It is a normal diplomatic arrangement for China to receive the new ambassador to China sent by the Afghan interim government and for him to present his credentials to the Chinese leader.”

However, Mr Wenbin didn’t clearly say whether China now officially recognises the Afghan interim government.

“I would like to say that China believes that Afghanistan should not be excluded from the international community. We hope Afghanistan will further respond to the expectations of the international community, build an open and inclusive political structure, adopt moderate and prudent domestic and foreign policies, firmly combat all forms of terrorist forces, develop friendly relations with other countries, especially with its neighbours, and integrate itself into the world community,” he said.

“We believe that diplomatic recognition of the Afghan government will come naturally as the concerns of various parties are effectively addressed,” he added.

‘No room for Xinjiang card’

In Pakistan, analysts believe that the Chinese decision is likely to send important vibes to many countries, particularly Afghanistan’s immediate neighbours.

Mushahid Hussain Syed, chairman of the Senate Defence Committee, says China’s “de facto recognition” of the Afghan Taliban regime is a major step forward for Afghanistan to come out of its diplomatic isolation as China is the first country to do so.

“China is amongst the six neighbours of Afghanistan, so that is even more significant,” Mr Hussain, who also heads the Islamabad-based Pakistan-China Institute, told Dawn.

He said China has today emerged as the most influential country with ingress and goodwill in Kabul, of a kind that no other neighbouring country of Afghanistan has.

Explaining the decision’s significance, Mr Hussain said China had gone against the Western line of isolating and pressuring the Afghan Taliban regime, especially the sanctions regime or demonising the regime in Kabul.

“Second, there was normally a coordinated approach on Afghanistan between Pakistan and China based on mutual consultation. Beijing probably feels Pakistan’s Afghan policy is in a flux, so they decided to go ahead and normalise ties,” he said.

“Third, by earning a goodwill of the Afghan Taliban regime through de facto recognition, China wants to pre-empt the West from trying to use Afghan territory against China, especially the possible use of the ‘Xinjiang card’, that the West is otherwise trying to deploy against China,” Mr Hussain said.

China’s pragmatic approach

Pakistan’s former ambassador to Afghanistan, Mansoor Ahmad Khan, believes that this is part of China’s consistent and pragmatic approach to engagement with Afghanistan with the aim of helping the country achieve lasting peace and stability coming out of decades of war and external interventions.

“Substantively, it will contribute towards increased political, economic and counterterrorism interaction and cooperation between China and Afghanistan in the coming years. China has a deep interest in increasing economic investments in Afghanistan in various sectors, including mining, manufacturing, agriculture and services sectors,” Mr Khan told Dawn.

‘De jure recognition’

Pakistan’s former ambassador to Afghanistan, Qazi Humayun, argues that the fact that President Xi has accepted the credentials of the Afghan ambassador is “tantamount to de jure recognition” of the Afghan government, which is a major and significant step and indicates China’s vital interests in Afghanistan.

“It is to be looked at from the angle that no other country has recognised Afghanistan, including Pakistan, which is a major neighbouring country. This will have further ramifications and I think China is very serious about development in Afgha­nistan,” the former ambassador told Dawn.

Mr Hamayun refers to the Afghan government’s plan to make road access along the Wakhan Corridor to China, which he says will have invaluable access and may be a shorter access than the Karakoram Highway from the Pakistani side.

“Chinese economic activities in Afghanistan will receive a significant boost and more investments in Afghanistan from China. [Kabul] will also agree to join CPEC. So, there is a major development in this area, which I think political observers will take cognisance of in the eve of coming weeks and months, we shall hear more about the significant development,” he said.

‘Not a big achievement’

However, former Afghan diplomat Zardasht Sham views the Chinese decision as big news for the Taliban but not a significant achievement as China has an ambassador in Kabul and had also handed over the Afghan embassy in Beijing to the Taliban.

“No doubt China has maintained contacts with the Taliban since their takeover in August 2021. But China is very careful and does not want the Taliban to become a headache for it due to the presence of the ETIM members in Afghanistan,” Mr Zardasht told Dawn, referring to the Muslim separatist group East Turkestan Islamic Movement.

Afghanistan’s importance for China

Afghanistan is also important for China as a crucial link for the expansion of its mega Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to West and Central Asia. For years, it has been engaged in efforts to extend the BRI’s flagship CPEC project to Afghanistan for this purpose. However, aggravating tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan following the Taliban takeover in August 2021 has not augured well for this endeavour.

The decision is likely to send vibes to many countries, particularly Afghanistan’s immediate neighbours. All the neighbours, including China, continue to have concerns about the presence of a wide range of terrorist groups inside various pockets of Afghanistan, particularly along the borders.

Yet, the dominant view among neighbours as well as the world at large is to pursue a political approach for addressing terrorism and security concerns and expand economic engagement with Afgha­nistan. There remains an overwhelming consensus against supporting any kind of armed insurgency or opposition against the Taliban regime.

Published in Dawn, February 5th, 2024