The constituencies corresponding to the ones which saw close contests in the 2018 general election will be interesting to watch, inasmuch as they will show how successful parties were in flipping past defeats into victory. ‘Swinging’ a tight constituency does not always require hard work. There are other, more devious means to turn defeat into victory. Those who know how to work the system use them without shame.

One of the most devious and least understood among these underhanded tactics is to attempt to influence the delimitation process. For example, a party which may have lost a constituency in the last election by a tiny margin can, when the constituency is being redrawn, have more of its voters moved in and its opponents’ voters moved out. This is referred to as ‘cracking’ and ‘packing’: i.e., you crack up your opponent’s vote bank and distribute it between neighbouring constituencies and/or pack more of your own voters from neighbouring constituencies into your own.

This is not to suggest any gerrymandering has indeed taken place in the recent delimitation. After all, considering the major changes in population between the 2017 census and the one notified in August 2023, significant alterations to constituency boundaries were necessary in any case. However, with 98 of the 272 constituencies from the 2018 elections significantly redrawn by the ECP for the upcoming polls, some suspicion about how fairly the process was completed ought to be expected, especially with some established analysts stating on record that certain parties seem to have been favoured in certain places. It is unfortunate that this matter has not been raised much publicly since the Supreme Court earlier stayed the challenges against delimitations till after the general elections are over.

Other devious means used to sway results in tight races include measures to discourage rivals’ voters from casting their votes. This can take many forms, ranging from tactics to discourage citizens from leaving their homes, to preventing parties from transporting candidates to polling stations, to disrupting or slowing down the voting process so that the voters are forced to turn back or wait for extended periods.

It does not end here, though. Once voting is completed, the contesting candidates and their teams need to be on top of their game. Polling agents have to protect their party’s votes during the counting process and make sure each vote gets counted by the presiding officer. Then, they must ensure that the copy of the vote tally they are issued matches with the final count announced by the Election Commission, lest they need to challenge the results or point out any irregularity in the counting process. If the party ahead even slightly drops its guard, the next in line is waiting to take advantage. At the end come the recounts and petitions.

The toughest victories are clearly not easy to keep, and, as discussed, victory is not the only outcome of a successful campaign. Sometimes the slightest complacency can make one lose the game. With D-Day tomorrow, the line between the victor and the vanquished will be clearer sooner rather than later.

Published in Dawn, February 7th, 2024