LAHORE: The PML-N and independents (read PTI) are locked in a close fight in Punjab with the former having a little edge over the latter. In a house of 297, the PML-N is leading with 132 seats while the PTI-backed candidates are closely following it with 127 seats.

The PPP has got with 10 seats, the PML-Q five seats, Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party (IPP) one and Tehreek-i-Labbaik (TLP) one. Out of total 297 seats, results of 276 were declared and the rest are awaited.

The TLP made its first gain in Punjab when its Mahmood Ahmad secured 33,793 votes in PP-55 Narowal. He was followed by Arsalan Hafiz, an independent, and Muhammad Akmal of the PML-N.

The situation, however, may further improve for the PML-N when, as a party, it gets its share of reserved seats for women and the minorities. The independents, being a collection of individuals, would neither be entitled to seats reserved for women nor for the minorities. However, if the PTI independents join any party en bloc, that party may get reserved seats. The PTI had explored the chances when it lost its party symbol just before the elections.

Second numerical loss to the PTI-independents may come when the PTI-sponsored independents are sifted from those who are not supported by the party during the elections and they won the election on their own. Psephologists calculate around a dozen candidates belonging to this category. And if they join the PML-N, it would further improve the party’s comfort.

In 2018, the PTI and the PML-N were locked in a similar situation till 24 independents joined the former and it entered into a coalition partnership with the PML-Q to improve its tally and form the government in Punjab. With the loss of reserved and minority seats, the independents belonging to the PTI would be in a numerical disadvantageous position.

Division-wise gain and loss of seats make an interesting read. The PML-N has gained in the north of the province, especially Rawalpindi division, with 15 provincial seats. In the Lahore division, it won 33 seats. It also gained in Gujranwala, Sialokot and Narowal districts with a combined win of 19 seats. However, it suffered in Gujrat, Hafizabad and Wazirabad districts. The biggest routing of it came from Faisalabad division where it won five seats but lost 27 to independents. The Sargodha division also ditched the PML-N where 17 independents won against nine of the PML-N. It was a tie in Multan with 14 seats to each. DG Khan also gave four to PML-N and 17 to its rival.

“The PTI situation, as it stands now, still has many variables,” says Hassan Askari Rizvi – an educationist and former caretaker chief minister. Its position and behaviour would depend on who forms government at the centre. But, in any case, the Punjab government, whosoever forms it, would survive on a marginal majority and would not be a stable government, especially if centre has a government of the different party. There are still many variables and the situation would get clear in the next few days or weeks,” he says and adds that the Punjab government would be a headache for whosoever runs it.

Ahmad Bilal Mahboob of the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency(Pildat) agrees with Prof Rizvi.

“The independents are not a party whereas the PML-N is one. So, the latter will get a share of the reserved seats. Even if it manages a simple majority, it would not be easy to rule the province for next five years, especially if the PTI decides to concentrate on streets rather than the assembly as it has done in the last year or so. As things stand now, political and governance stability may elude the province.”

Published in Dawn, February 10th, 2024