ISLAMABAD: Over 1,000 lawmakers from the country’s six legislatures are set to vote to elect a new president today (Saturday), with the ruling coalition’s candidate Asif Ali Zardari having a clear edge over his rival, Mehmood Khan Achakzai, who is backed by the PTI-led opposition alliance.

Having the highest number of votes in the 696-vote electoral college for the presidential election (after the application of a constitutional formula), Mr Zardari is the favourite to clinch the Presidency for a second time, after a gap of over 11 years. He previously served as president from 2008 to 2013 after the ouster of Gen Pervez Musharraf.

The newly elected president will take oath of the office tomorrow (Sunday) after the expiry of the extended five-year term of incumbent president Dr Arif Alvi, who was presented a farewell guard of honour at the Presidency on Friday.

Earlier in the day, Mr Achakzai provoked the ire of his opponents for writing to the ECP to seek postponement of the presidential election, stating that the electoral college prescribed by the law and Constitution for the election of the president of Pakistan was still incomplete.

JUI-F, JI to abstain; PPP leader can expect to get around 400 votes, Achakzai may not be able to cross 200-mark

In his letter, Mr Achakzai stated that there had been some reserved seats in the National Assembly and in all provincial assemblies which were still vacant. He also mentioned the petition filed in the Peshawar High Court by the SIC in this regard. The court has barred those notified by the ECP as returned candidates on the reserved seats from taking oath as lawmakers.

Meanwhile, the PPP also wrote to the ECP, terming Mr Achakzai’s demand for postponing the presidential elections as ‘undemocratic’, alleging that the move was tantamount to an attempt to derail democracy.

Party position in legislatures

Besides his own Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), Mr Zardari has the backing of nine parties which are Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P), Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party (IPP), Awami National Party (ANP), PML-Q, National Party (NP) and PML-Zia.

Mr Achakzai, who is the president of the Pashtoon­khwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP), has been nominated by the PTI and also enjoys support of smaller parties like Majlis Wahdat Muslimeen (MWM) and the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA).

Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) and Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) have announced that they will abstain from the voting process, whereas some smaller parties have not yet come out with a categorical announcement. A PPP delegation, led by Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani, made a last ditch effort on Friday to woo JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman, but they failed in their latest endeavour.

Given the party position in the parliament as well as in all the four provincial assemblies, Mr Achakzai, however, is expected to easily defeat Mr Zardari only in the 145-member Khyber Pkhtunkhwa Assembly where the PTI members, who have now joined the Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC), have a clear majority even after denial of the reserved seats for women and minorities by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP).

Importantly, as the election of president is held through secret ballot and the post is constitutionally non-partisan, cross-party voting does not constitute ‘defection’.

Formula

According to the formula for the president’s election, given in Second Schedule of the Constitution, the vote of a senator, an MNA and a member of the Balochistan Assembly is counted as one vote, while the votes of MPAs from Sindh, Punjab and KP are “multiplied by the total number of seats in the provincial assembly… having the smallest number of seats and divided by the total number of seats in the provincial assembly in which the votes have been cast.”

Since the Balochistan Assembly has a minimum number of 65 members, therefore, the total votes in all the three provincial assemblies will also be considered to be 65 each.

For example, there are 371 members in the Punjab Assembly. If we divide 371 by 65, it comes to around 5.70, which means the votes of six Punjab MPAs will be counted as one vote.

In this manner, the total votes in all the legislatures come to 696. With some seats lying vacant for various reasons and some members have not yet taken oath, it is expected that the total votes polled will be 640 to 650.

Since the party position is still a little murky due to confusion in the numbers of reserved seats, it is difficult to predict the actual results, but one can safely say that if every member votes strictly in accordance with the party position, Mr Zardari would be able to secure nearly 400 votes whereas Mr Achakzai may not be able to cross the 200 mark.

Published in Dawn, March 9th, 2024