THIS could be a global election year, as some 60 countries are set to go to polls. Pakistan has crossed the line; India and the US will follow later. The US president is an octogenarian, and his challenger is 77. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is 73. Leaving aside the seat warmers, the real contenders for power in Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan, are both septuagenarians.

Pakistan and India are different from the US because it has a two-term limit on holding the presidency, and no matter who wins this year, it will be his last stint in the Oval Office. One reason why Imran Khan could not wait to become prime minister back in 2018, regardless of the price, was that he would be in his seventies before the next scheduled polls. That must have appeared a long haul to a 66-year-old novice, his ‘22 years of struggle’ notwithstanding. Imagine his earnestness to lead 200 million-plus Pakistanis, lest they be made to wait till 2029, when the next general elections are due. He will be 76 then. All the treadmills and burpees in the world would not make him a credible choice for the 15- to 20-year reign that he said is required to turn Pakistan around.

Imran is not alone in this predicament. Nawaz is 74. This explains his fervour to oust the PTI government with the establishment’s support through a vote of no-confidence in April 2022. He and his party knew full well what havoc the interregnum would wreak on their political capital. The economic reforms that were continuously sacrificed at the altar of populism will now have to be undertaken behind the fig leaf of an IMF programme. The establishment, too, had no choice but to ‘see to it’ that a beaten-into-submission, non-PTI coalition wins the 2024 elections, as any deviation from the Fund programme would mean that the loan lifeline, now imperative even for paying defence salaries, is withdrawn.

Once lured away from his defiant voteko izzat do (honour the ballot) stance, and in light of the establishment’s hard-line stance towards Afghanistan, Iran and India, as indicated by the army chief’s address to students in Islamabad, the elder Sharif had no option but to step aside to make way for his younger sibling’s ride to the Prime Minister’s Office.

Personality drives all aspirations to take Pakistan in a new direction.

PM Shehbaz Sharif is known more for his energy and hands-on administration than being a visionary ready to challenge the security paradigm. His assigned role has always been that of a go-between for the House of Sharif and Army House. He can be counted upon to undertake the bare minimum structural reforms to keep international lenders from turning off the taps. However, even some reforms and the stability they afford would be better than what the PTI did to itself and the country. The PTI had promised a team of economic wizards in the run-up to the 2018 polls. They never materialised and led to its leader’s desperate stance ‘I will commit suicide before going to the IMF’.

Mr Modi, who seems all set to win another stint in office this year, is spearheading an election campaign that his party men are not loath to term as a bid for the 2029 polls; he will be 78 at the end of his third consecutive stay at 7, Lok Kalyan Marg, the official residence of the prime minister in Delhi. The Modi-led BJP is said to have a rule of retiring its leaders at 75; however, its latest move to award the party ticket to Hema Malini, 75, to contest a Lok Sabha seat from Mathura, can signal the beginning of an era where popularity trumps all other considerations. At least the ‘extension’ here is for staying in the fray, and not in office.

Nawaz Sharif, the proponent of regional integration and normalising Pak­istan-India relat­ions, will be 79 if he has to wait till he can take an­­other stab at policymaking in 2029. At the end of that term, he will be 84. In other words, all aspirations to take Pakistan in a new direction are personality-driven. The forces insisting on keeping us bogged down in the morass of a security state mindset have institutional backing behind them.

Asif Zardari has secured the highest constitutional office for a record second time for a civilian; at 68, he is the youngest of the lot and will remain president till he is 73. All these projections matter little as health and lifespan are the two great unknowns. However, office and power are greater predictors of longevity than lifestyle choices and genes.

Imran Khan is the only political prisoner who has so far not developed a list of ailments requiring hospitalisation and treatment abroad. It must be mentioned, however, that he is also the only one to have worn a cast over gunshot wounds for months. The die may have been cast for the people; for the real and pretend rulers, there are options galore at home and abroad.

The writer is a poet. His latest publication is a collection of satire essays titled Rindana.

shahzadsharjeel1@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, March 18th, 2024