CALL it a tragedy or a farce, the reality is that both Pakistan’s ruling elites and the IMF refuse to learn anything from the past, even after 23 unsuccessful loan programmes and failing the people time and again. As the country seeks a longer and larger bailout, it is no secret that IMF programmes have hardly delivered on their objectives, because neither the authorities nor the Fund have shown enough interest in actively pursuing the needed reforms. If Pakistani rulers have been more concerned about accessing money and accreditation to continue their import-based consumption policies to show economic growth, the IMF has been focused on short-term stabilisation measures, despite the costs imposed on the people and economy. For example, at the beginning of a programme, there is much talk of forcing the rich to pay their due share. And yet, the lender agrees to shift a bigger load of harsh fiscal adjustments on the poor and salaried classes through indirect taxes or higher tax rates for captive taxpayers. So, it is not surprising to hear people blame the IMF for the recurrent crises this country faces.

In its staff report on the recently concluded review of the nine-month Stand-by Arrangement, the Fund has praised what it calls “strong programme implementation”, with the mission chief claiming that “Pakistan’s economic and financial position in the months since the first review has improved, with growth and confidence continuing to recover on the back of prudent policy management and the resumption of inflows from multilateral and bilateral partners”. But it doesn’t mention the impact of the unprecedented increase in energy prices on the lives of most citizens or how higher indirect taxes have squeezed them financially. Poverty levels in the country are increasing and even middle-income households are struggling in the face of soaring inflation, job losses and wage cuts in the vain hope of surviving this crisis. The rich continue to live a life of opulence, spending holidays abroad and buying luxury imported cars with borrowed dollars. With Pakistan seeking yet another bailout, which the prime minister yesterday described as imperative for economic stability, the lender has made it clear that the broader goals will remain the same as laid out in previous agreements. Will the outcome be any different this time? Ordinary Pakistanis can only hope for better days.

Published in Dawn, March 22nd, 2024