LONDON: An ad launched by the Conservative party ahead of the mayoral polls in London, in May, stirred controversy. The ad was eventually deleted, after it posted misinformation targeting the incumbent London mayor, Sadiq Khan.

In a bid to discredit Khan, the video posted to X (formerly Twitter), in support of Tory mayoral candidate Susan Hall, had shown scenes of a panicked crowd at a subway station in New York, purporting that it was London. The footage showed people rushing through New York’s Penn station after false reports of gunfire in 2017.

The video was posted with the caption, “London under Labour has become a crime capital of the world”. It featured an emoji of a red rose, which is the symbol of the Labour party, that was shedding its petals.

The original video had shown text which said, “A 54% increase in knife crime since the Labour mayor seized power has the metropolis teetering on the brink of chaos. And in the chaos, people seek a desperate reprieve.”

Commentators and journalists quickly pointed out that the footage was not from London. The video was subsequently deleted from the official X account of the Conservative party and a new one uploaded with the clips in question being removed.

Responding to the deleted video, Sadiq Khan accused the Conservatives of using “lies” in their campaign to unseat him as the mayor of London.

He said, “It is quite staggering, we have a Conservative candidate aspiring to be mayor of our great city, just doing our city down. I think it is unpatriotic always just slagging off the capital,” Khan said. “But I’m afraid it’s another example of my fear materialising, which is this election from the Conservative party, will be one where there is misinformation, where there are lies and in this case, clearly where this is a video that is not of our city. It is New York.”

A Guardian investigation showed last month that people are less likely to be victims of crime in London than across the country as a whole, and that London has one of the lowest levels of antisocial behaviour.

“Excluding a calamity, Khan will almost certainly win in May.” The Guardian wrote in a separate piece, echoing what several independent analysts have said.

Prospect Magazine, however, reported, “There is nervous talk in Khan’s camp that the election could be close, and even that Susan Hall, his Conservative opponent, might just beat him. Are the nerves justified?”

It outlined four key challenges in the way of a victory for Mr Khan. “First, Khan’s personal rating has slumped since he was re-elected three years ago. Last time more voters said he was doing well than badly. Now just 27 per cent tell ‘YouGov’ they are satisfied with him, while 45 per cent say they are dissatisfied.”

Secondly, it noted that the last time Mr Khan won by a narrow margin, and thirdly, that the voting system had changed with the second vote system standing abolished.

“Finally, London’s large Muslim population may desert Labour because of the situation in Gaza. Muslims comprise 15 per cent of London’s population. Until now a large majority has voted for the Labour Party. Any significant desertion, even if they just stay at home, would hurt Khan.”

It also added, “Of course, Khan himself is Muslim. Will this prevent his co-religionists deserting him, or at least cause fewer of them to do so? In any event, how many Muslims (and others) will have Gaza at the front of their minds when they decide who they want as mayor? We won’t know for sure until after 2nd May, when we get the detailed results, and can compare strong Muslim areas with the rest of London.”

In a February interview, Khan said, “The election in May is too close to call — with the Tory Government introducing new voter ID laws and a new voting system, it’s likely to be the closest contest we’ve ever seen. I’m under no illusion, I could lose in May.” A November 2023 ‘YouGov’ poll demonstrated that Sadiq Khan holds a 25-point lead over Susan Hall for mayor. As for voting intention, Khan gets most of the votes among white Londoners, (by 45% to 30%) and ethnic minority Londoners, (by 57% to 18%). He is likewise the preferred choice for mayor among all gender and class groups, as well as age groups under 65.

Commenting on the botched Tory ad targeting Khan, one political commentator wrote, “If Tories who want to run the capital think London is in New York, shouldn’t we be worried?”

Published in Dawn, March 27th, 2024