The resurgence of social and political tensions post-February elections is puzzling, especially when economic indicators in Pakistan are finally starting to improve. Despite navigating a very difficult year, where the country narrowly avoided default with the help of donors, the political climate has become increasingly volatile.

The public, desperate for tangible benefits, is growing impatient and seems unwilling to wait for economic improvements to positively impact their daily lives. The state machinery’s mishandling of public outbursts in various parts of the country further underscores the government’s inability to understand social undercurrents and its insensitivity towards peoples’ struggles.

For instance, the situation in several areas of Azad Kashmir and the peasant’s protests in Punjab highlights this discontent and the failure to address the public’s grievances effectively.

Meanwhile, the capital market is booming, foreign exchange reserves are gradually building up, the currency is relatively stable, and inflation is declining. Agriculture performance has been robust, and Pakistan is once again catching the attention of foreign investors, with economic activity finally picking up.

Current parties and their leadership lack the capacity and the intent to implement necessary corrections to the flawed structure

Despite these positive indicators, people and even informed politicians like former finance minister Miftah Ismail find the situation distressing for the working masses, especially women and youths. Mr Ismail believes that the current parties and their leadership lack both the capacity and the intent to implement necessary corrections to the flawed structure, hindering stability and sustainable growth.

He, along with like-minded individuals such as former prime minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi and ex-senator Mustaffa Nawaz Khokar, have been advocating a case for a new political party in the country. All three were sidelined within their respective parties: Mr Ismail and Mr Abbasi in PML-N and Mr Khokar in PPP.

It is worth noting that Pakistan already has 170 registered political parties. However, distinguishing between the three major ones — PPP, PMLN and PTI — based on their manifestos is challenging as they all pledge progress with social justice and a liberal, democratic and peaceful state.

Business leaders expressed a mix of emotions when commenting on the evolving complex situation and the potential for a new party. They were pleased with the positive economic indicators but concerned about political unrest spilling into the streets.

Muhammad Sohail, CEO of Topline Securities, highlighted the impressive performance of the capital market in recent months, focusing on the positives and assuming that public protests are a temporary phase. He noted, “The economy is showing promising signs of stabilisation, but it will take time for the benefits to reach to the middle and lower classes.”

Nasim Beg, CEO of Arif Habib Consultancy, attributed public unrest to economic illiteracy. “Only a small segment of the population understands economic indicators. For most people, the economy is judged by personal experience. The cost of living increased by over 50 per cent without a matching rise in earnings. The spike in street crimes has added to their sense of insecurity.

“Most people will see the benefits of improved indicators after a lag. While the Stock Exchange is responding positively, the majority will only feel hopeful once their earnings improve. Until then, times remain stressful for the average citizens.”

Mr Beg believes there is a void in Pakistan’s political landscape despite existing parties. He sees scope for a new party if it can convincingly demonstrate democratic credentials and a credible plan to bridge the societal divide that perpetuates economic inequality.

Dr Khurram Tariq, President of the Faisalabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry, suggested that foreign interests might be orchestrating unrest to pressure the government. He warned against complacency despite initial positive indicators. Though sceptical of a new political party, he acknowledged the need for fresh, younger leadership to better steer the country.

Chaudhry Muhammad Saeed, former president of the Federation of Chamber of Commerce and Industry, advised patience to experience the benefits of growth as investments begin to flow in. He noted the billions of dollars in pledges made by development partners from both East and West. Despite the support of resourceful patrons, he did not see much scope for a new party.

Majyd Aziz, former president of the Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry, criticised the ruling coalition’s handling of the opposition and found the political polemics unhelpful in a deeply divided country. He stressed the importance of highlighting positives developments and opposed using strong arm tactics to silence dissent.

Aware of the government’s precarious position balancing donor demands and public desire for immediate relief, Mr Aziz vouched for the credibility of the new party’s key sponsors but was unsure if they could keep it free of opportunists seeking to advance personal agendas.

Some experts and senior politicians also shared their views. Ex-senator Farhatullah Baber, head of PPP’s Human Rights cell, was sceptical of the new party. He believed democratic elements, both inside and outside existing parties, should strive to forge unity and a stronger alliance of parties committed to civilian supremacy.

Commenting on the trio promoting the new party, he said, “They are capable people of good intentions, but that alone is not sufficient to bring about positive change in Pakistan.”

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, May 20th, 2024