ISLAMABAD: Pakistan recor­ded its highest monthly growth in exports in three years with a jump of almost 19pc in May 2024.

The month-on-month growth rate of 18.76pc in dollar terms was the highest since June 2021, when the exports went up by 63.32pc.

According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics data released on Monday, exports increased to $2.79 billion in May, a year-on-year rise of 27.08pc against $2.19bn in the corresponding month of 2023.

May was also the first month that exports grew after declining for four consecutive months this year.

Imports stand at $4.9bn during May, FBR issues Rs438.11bn rebates in FY24 so far

Exports have been sliding since the start of the year in dollar terms with a growth of -8.38pc, -0.39pc, -7.49pc and -1.06 in April, March, February and January, respectively.

Total exports in the 11 months of fiscal year 2024 — July 2023 to May 2024 — were $28.07bn, up by 10.65pc from $25.36bn over the corresponding period last year.

Trade deficit

According to the data, imports during May stood at $4.9bn, resulting in a trade deficit of $2.1bn — a paltry year-on-year growth by 0.14pc.

In the 11MFY24, the deficit narrowed by 15.25pc to $21.73bn, compared to $25.64bn in the same period last year.

Rising exports might bring some joy to the government which has set an ambitious target to increase exports to $100bn by the end of FY28.

The IMF however doesn’t share the Commerce Ministry’s optimism as its projections for the next five years, during the first review of the previous $3bn Stand-by Arrange­ment, were way below the $100bn mark.

The fund anticipated that Pakis­tan’s exports will gradually increase from $30.84bn in FY24 to $32.35bn in FY25, $34.68bn in FY26, $37.25bn in FY27 and $39.46bn in FY28.

The Fund’s target appears more realistic as according to the data, exports recorded an average mont­hly growth of 3.03pc during the 11MFY24 and with just one left before the fiscal year ends, total exports are expected to be around $30bn.

There has been some positive indication in terms of rebates to taxpayers as the Federal Board of Revenue issued tax refunds/rebates of Rs438.11bn during the 11MFY24 as compared to Rs315.22bn over the corresponding months last year, showing an increase of 38.98pc.

Published in Dawn, June 4th, 2024