LONDON: The UK’s Labour Party appears poised for its largest parliamentary majority in a century, it emerged on Monday.

According to a YouGov poll, Labour led by Keir Starmer is set to secure a 194-seat majority, marking the biggest electoral victory since 1924 when Conservative politician Stanley Baldwin triumphed with 208 seats.

This projection, the first from YouGov since the election was called, signals a dramatic shift in the UK’s political landscape.

Labour is expected to win 422 seats, a significant increase of 222 from the 2019 results. This would surpass Tony Blair’s landslide in 1997 and is the highest number of seats Labour has ever won.

The poll indicates a substantial defeat for the Conservative Party, which could drop to just 140 seats, the lowest since their 131 seats in 1906.

YouGov’s polling, which includes over 53,000 interviews in England and Wales and over 5,500 in Scotland, suggests Labour’s vote share would be 42.9 per cent, compared to the Conservatives’ 24.5 per cent.

The potential Labour landslide spells trouble for many high-profile Conservative ministers. The poll suggests that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, and Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, among others, are at risk of losing their seats.

Interestingly, in an LSE blog from 2022 researcher and Emeritus Professor in the Department of Gover­nment at the University of Essex Paul Whitely noted that the Conservative vote share consistently appears to be more predictable than that of Labour, suggesting that Labour support is more volatile than Conservative support.

Published in Dawn, June 4th, 2024

Opinion

Editorial

Counterterrorism plan
Updated 23 Nov, 2024

Counterterrorism plan

Lacunae in our counterterrorism efforts need to be plugged quickly.
Bullish stock market
23 Nov, 2024

Bullish stock market

NORMALLY, stock markets rise gradually. In recent months, however, Pakistan’s stock market has soared to one ...
Political misstep
Updated 23 Nov, 2024

Political misstep

To drag a critical ally like Saudi Arabia into unfounded conspiracies is detrimental to Pakistan’s foreign policy.
Kurram atrocity
Updated 22 Nov, 2024

Kurram atrocity

It would be a monumental mistake for the state to continue ignoring the violence in Kurram.
Persistent grip
22 Nov, 2024

Persistent grip

An audit of polio funds at federal and provincial levels is sorely needed, with obstacles hindering eradication efforts targeted.
Green transport
22 Nov, 2024

Green transport

THE government has taken a commendable step by announcing a New Energy Vehicle policy aiming to ensure that by 2030,...