AT the cusp of yesterday, most of his troubles seemed so far away. The published exit polls pointed to a third landslide for Narendra Modi and his allies, even though the aspiration of 400-plus seats seemed far-fetched. The INDIA bloc-led opposition was justifiably sceptical about the projections.
There was never much doubt about Modi’s hat-trick — the likelihood that he would become the first prime minister since Jawaharlal Nehru to win three elections in a row. His Bharatiya Janata Party’s vote share, however, has never come close to the Congress tally between 1951 and 1962 — which always fell short of 50pc. Even when the Congress registered its highest percentage under Rajiv Gandhi in 1984, in the wake of his mother’s assassination (and the appalling anti-Sikh pogroms that followed), it’s unprecedented tally of 404 seats (out of 514) was based on 49pc of the popular vote.
As in all other first-past-the-post set-ups, the number of Lok Sabha seats a party or alliance wins does not have to match its percentage of votes. The same barrier to a more representative democracy applies in Britain — which may have to take the overdue leap into some form of proportional representation before former colonies such as India and Pakistan follow suit.
This year’s polls in India were extended across six weeks — an unnecessarily long ordeal. In the customary publicity surrounding the polls that involve the world’s largest electorate, some attention (as usual) was focused on, for example, how far electoral officials trek to obtain a handful of votes from barely accessible outposts. There were also reported instances — notably in UP — of Muslim voters being brusquely (and often violently) turned away from polling stations.
India’s awful PM has suffered a reality check
Nonetheless, at the time of writing, the INDIA bloc appeared to have a decisive lead in UP — a setback for the state’s obnoxious chief minister, Yogi Adityanath. INDIA also boasted a substantial lead in Maharashtra, and the NDA’s dreams of inroads into Kerala and Tamil Nadu appeared to have been put on hold.
Likewise, the ‘chaar sau paar’ (more than 400) illusion appears to have fallen short by about 100. Modi spent 45 hours during the final stage of the election in a ‘meditation’ retreat in Tamil Nadu, apparently surviving on coconut water and grape juice (one can only wonder about the vintage); his ‘isolation’ heralded by dozens of TV cameras. Notwithstanding his desperate claims of divinity (or at least a divinely inspired mission), a sizeable chunk of the electorate appears to have decided that this would-be deity is encumbered by feet of clay.
Those who feared that another thumping majority lay in store have been pleasantly surprised. Even though a Modi exit remains distant, it seems closer than it appeared a few weeks ago. Since his advent as PM a decade ago, Modi has been courted and feted by Western counterparts who ought to have known better. His overbearing demeanour and attitude may not change in the near future. But his comeuppance in the latest polls may spell the beginning of the end for the RSS stranglehold in Delhi.
There are no grounds for complacency, but India appears to be on a more hopeful trajectory. The initial winner of three successive elections, Nehru, was a dedicated foe of communalism in both its Hindu and Muslim manifestations. He noted more than once in his autobiography, though, that the relative dignity of the Muslim communalists was not reflected among their Hindu counterparts. Notwithstanding the ‘pandit’ title he inherited, Nehru was devoutly irreligious — but well aware that several of his Congress colleagues harboured communal prejudices beneath their secular garb.
He would have been disappointed by several of his successors at the helm of the Congress, possibly including his daughter and grandson, both of whom suffered brutal deaths. He might have found cause for pride, though, in the endeavours of his great-grandson. Whether or not Rahul Gandhi will ever be PM is not written in the stars, and dynastic politics are in many ways a curse in the subcontinent and the rest of Asia.
A few decades ago, India looked like a plausible role model to Pakistanis irked by their nation’s descent into military-sponsored religious fundamentalism. India turned the tables by going the same way in 2014. Pakistan has never quite turned away from the obscurantism it encountered after July 1977. At a stretch, Indian voters have now indicated that they resent that formula in the Hindu context, particularly when it fails to deliver the promised levels of employment and levelling up.
Modi will henceforth be a depleted leader, and the justifiably reviled Amit Shah might have reached the end of his tether. The BJP-led coalition is expected to rule for the next five years. But, given current trends, it might not stretch that far. Fingers crossed.
Published in Dawn, June 5th, 2024
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